The Theme Of Economic Policy In 2015: Rebalance Of Speed And Quality

In 2014, GDP grew by 7.4% over the same period last year. This is another shift from the farewell to the "8" era, down to below 7.5%. In 2014, consumer prices rose by 2%, 13 million 220 thousand new jobs in cities and towns, and the unemployment rate was stable at around 5.1%. In 2014, the government maintained flexibility in adjusting the range and persisted in the bottom line thinking, so as to achieve "speed reduction" in economic growth. At the same time, most of the "soft indicators" improved significantly, and the "transfer mode" and "adjustment structure" made significant progress, which fully showed that the decision-making level scientifically understood the new normal, and adapted to the new normal and actively took the lead in guiding the new normal. In 2014, China's economy was running smoothly under the new normal. This is the innovation of this administration. Macro-control Another successful practice.

　　 The new growth momentum is being nurtured.

In 2014, the added value of the third industry increased by 8.1%, 0.8 percentage points higher than that of the second industry, and the proportion of third industrial added value to GDP was 1.3 percentage points higher than that of 2013, 48.2% percentage points higher than that of second industries, 5.6 percentage points higher than that of the second industry in 2013. This is the first time that the value added of the third industry has exceeded the second industry; the contribution rate of the final consumption expenditure to the GDP growth has increased by second percentage points to the total, the demand structure has been continuously improved; the energy consumption per unit GDP has dropped considerably, and the annual drop in the total pollutant emission has been completed. The rapid growth of high-tech industries, new industries, new technologies, new formats, new models and new products are accelerating growth, and the new growth kinetic energy is accelerating. These trend development results are the outstanding features of China's economic performance report card in 2014, and the concentrated expression of China's economic upgrading and upgrading.

After more than 30 years of rapid growth, which relies heavily on environment and resource consumption, the phasing characteristics of China's economy have undergone profound changes. Last year, the central economic work conference expounded the characteristics of the "new normal" from nine major trends. The pressure of these new trends, coupled with the strength of the deep adjustment of the world economy after the international financial crisis, has led to the development of China's economy. New normal goals "

The rebalancing between China's economic growth rate and the development of quality and efficiency is an objective requirement for adapting to the new normal. Under the new normal, the Chinese economy needs to pay more attention to and follow the economic laws, natural laws and social laws, and gradually achieve scientific development, sustainable development and inclusive development. It needs economic development mode to shift from extensive speed to extensive growth to quality and efficiency intensive growth. The economic structure will shift from the incremental expansion to the adjustment of stock and the coexistence of high quality and increment. The driving force of economic development will shift from the traditional growth point to the new growth point. This is a valuable experience to sum up China's economic and social development over the past 30 years, and it is also an inevitable choice to take the initiative to adapt to the new normal and effectively resolve the current "three phase superposition" dilemma.

　　 The worst is over.

If we look at the figures from a single point of view, the annual growth rate of 7.4% is the lowest since 1991. Affected by the adjustment of real estate, the elimination of backward manufacturing capacity and the hard constraints of environmental protection and emission reduction, the investment in fixed assets will continue downward, and the downward pressure on the growth rate of the whole year's economy will continue to increase. But in the face of difficulties and challenges, the government has always been determined to take the initiative and act as a leader in the implementation of directional regulation under interval management. Instead of adopting "strong stimulation", it has pushed ahead with "strong reform". Through continuous "decentralization of authority" and "system building", we have made great efforts to adjust the structure and make efforts to improve people's livelihood. We have transformed the "dividend of reform" into "new development of kinetic energy" and "well-being of the people's livelihood". Structural reforms have been used to promote structural adjustment. We have made full use of the golden key of innovation to successfully achieve the main objective of economic and social development in 2014.

In 2014, the central economic work conference gave a comprehensive and systematic exposition of the "new normal", and pointed out the most important background of economic development policy and macro regulation and control in the current and future period, and also the fundamental basis for grasping the trend of economic situation and macro policy this year. Transformation and upgrading is not a day's work. As long as China's economic transformation has not yet been successful, the downward pressure on the economy will always exist. The difficulty and long-term nature of structural adjustment and transformation will determine the long-term nature of the downward pressure of the economy (the downward pressure on the economy and the transformation and upgrading of structural adjustment). China's economy is still facing many downward pressure in 2015. However, this government's accurate grasp of the new normal and the firm determination and strong ability to guide the new normal are guiding and contributing to social reasonable expectations, forming a broad range of ideas and actions to jointly drive the Chinese economy towards innovation driven and towards the middle and high end.

The year 2014 marks the first year of the "new normal" of China's economy. It is a landmark year to test the government's understanding and policy orientation towards the new normal, and it is also a year that has contributed to the adaptation expectation of the new normal. In 2014, the positive effects of a series of reform and innovation measures have just been brought into play, but the huge dividends of reform and the broad growth space of innovation have been fully manifested. In the future, under the background of continuous deepening of reform and innovation, the consciousness and initiative of reform and innovation at all levels of government and market entities will be strengthened. In this sense, the worst stage of China's economy has passed. The government will further fulfill its responsibilities and the market environment will be further optimized. The market players will further stimulate the creation of entrepreneurial potential, and the driving force of endogenous economic growth will further enhance, which will inject more potential for China's sustained and rapid economic growth in 2015.

　　 Structural policy The main line will continue.

A profound understanding of the internal contradictions and development directions of China's economy under the new normal and the firm determination of the current government to promote reform, innovation and transformation and upgrading are prerequisites for policy prejudging. As mentioned above, the downward pressure on China's economy is always greater during the transition period. We need to reform the igniter to promote the new engine of innovation and development, and fully release the dividend of the institutional mechanism. This determines that the reform of 2015 will further develop in depth. The measures of "decentralization" and "micro liberalization" will continue to deepen, continue to "relax" and "quench thirst" for the small and medium enterprises, and further stimulate social innovation, create entrepreneurial enthusiasm and economic vitality. Directional regulation and control and structural regulation are still prominent features of this year's policy mainline.

In 2014, the "three carriages" showed signs of overall deceleration, especially the pulling effect of investment on economic growth was significantly weakened. "Efforts to maintain steady economic growth" did not appear to be a significant reduction in the downward trend of the economy. Keeping the economy running at a reasonable level is the primary task of this year's economic work. The size of the "flexibility" at the bottom of the economic rational interval depends mainly on the risk tolerance caused by the employment and economic downturn. The rebalancing of economic growth and growth quality and efficiency is still the theme of economic policy in 2015. As we continue to promote reform and encourage innovation, risk tolerance is further enhanced. We have judged that the target of economic growth in 2015 will be reduced to the 7%~7.2% interval, and other major indicators will also be adjusted accordingly.

"Steady growth, reform and structural adjustment" is for the long-term and healthy development of the economy, and the fundamental purpose of economic development is to protect and improve people's livelihood, to maintain the bottom line of full employment growth, to discard the stereotype thinking blindly pursuing growth figures, and to pay more attention to the harmony between the people, the economy and the society. This is a major proposition that must be faced in the new normal. "Steady growth, promoting reform, adjusting structure, benefiting people's livelihood and preventing risks" are still the basic guidelines for economic work this year. The central economic work conference has pointed out that in 2015, economic work persisted in the general keynote of steady progress, adhered to the general idea of macroeconomic policy being stable, microcosmic policies to live, and social policies should be underpinning, and continued to implement the combination of "active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy".

Judging from the two dimensions of the industrial cycle and policy cycle, China's real estate industry has begun to enter the inflection point of the long cycle, and the excessive housing prices have entered the overall downward channel. China's real estate industry is opening up the "new normal" which is suitable for the coordinated growth of housing prices and residents' incomes and economic growth, and the development of real estate investment and urbanization. Based on this judgement, we believe that the property market will continue to adjust this year, and the traditional forces of real estate and long industrial chain will strongly weaken the Chinese economy. The manufacturing industry is still in the stage of capacity development, and the investment in manufacturing industry is expected to continue to slow down. We judge that the "positive fiscal policy" is more strongly reflected in strengthening the counter cyclical regulation of fiscal policy, strengthening the guiding role of fiscal policy in transformation and upgrading, and increasing the scale of tax reduction and increase. Specific aspects will increase support for technological innovation and strategic emerging industries; in order to hedge the downward pressure on real estate investment, investment in infrastructure interconnection will also be further enhanced; the deficit rate will increase correspondingly.

In monetary policy, it is the main task of monetary policy to guide the real economy to lower the cost of financing and ensure the availability of funds in key areas. In 2015, the monetary policy emphasized more emphasis on "tightness and moderation" besides maintaining "stability". This means that this year's monetary policy will be more "active" and liquidity management will be more active. Facing the characteristics of transformation and upgrading under the new normal, monetary policy will continue to adhere to the basic orientation of "total stability and structural optimization", and create a moderately moderate monetary and financial environment for structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading, and guide funds to the key areas and weak links of the national economy, such as "agriculture, rural areas and farmers" and small and micro enterprises, so as to give full play to the positive role of monetary policy in adjusting the structure of transfer mode. The 2015 central bank monetary credit and financial market working conference also pointed out that we should strengthen directional regulation on the basis of interval regulation, promote the optimization of credit structure, and pay more attention to sticking to problem oriented, using financial market tools and policy coordination. We judge that the "precision force" is still the art of monetary policy's "tip balance". Through SLO, SLF, PSL and MLF and other innovative tools, "directional" pre fine-tuning, targeted implementation of "sprinkler irrigation" and "drip irrigation", the central bank's large-scale "water release" expectations can basically be eliminated.