Hung Jung: 6 Major Factors Affecting The Stock Market In 2015

"You must pay close attention to the 6 factors that affect the stock market trend in 2014 (:1), the thinking changes of the regulatory authorities; 2, the situation of incremental capital entering the market (whether there are institutional changes); 3, IPO shocks (first half); 4, the price of funds (the real interest rate level of the market); 5, the real estate market (the extent of the problem may erupt); 6, the trend of the economy.

The last three are the most talked about by economists and analysts, which are relatively unimportant.

To solve the problems of 4, 5 and 6, we must make good use of them.

Whether the capital market can be used well depends on the situation of 1, 2 and 3.

The nine new country can be understood as a major change of thinking of the regulatory authorities. That is the first point that I must pay close attention to affecting the stock market trend in 2014, which is the most important one (May 2014).

It is a coincidence that nine new countries were released in May 2014 and the bull market opened on July.

In the second half of the year, the economy is not only improving or even going bad, but is it reasonable for the stock market to go up in the second half of the year? But one thing is for sure, all of which support my judgement at the end of 2013.

We must seize the major contradictions affecting the stock market trend in 2015. First, we must find the important similarities and differences between 2015 and 2014.

The biggest similarities are: 1, we are still building socialism with Chinese characteristics; 2, the regulatory mechanism and the structure of investors have not undergone any essential changes; 3, the economy has not changed much.

The biggest difference is: 1, stock prices have been very different; 2, people's expectations of the stock market are also very different.

Therefore, the dividends we can expect will still be on the institutional level, but the impact on the stock market trend will change as the system falls and people expect changes.

In this way, I think we should pay close attention to the 6 factors that affect the stock market in 2015 (by importance):

1, the government's requirements and expectations for the stock market; 2, the situation of incremental capital entering the market (institutional change progress); 3, registration system impact; 4, capital price (market real interest rate level); 5, overseas market (the extent of the problem may erupt); 6, economic trend.

The last three are the most talked about by economists and analysts, which are relatively unimportant.

1, the government's requirements and expectations for the stock market.

The rise of the stock market, like the girl who is the eighteen biggest girl in the big girl, naturally gets more attention and expectation. If the more beautiful (the better the trend), it will inevitably get entangled in gossip, which makes the parents excited and worried.

The government found that a strong stock market could solve many problems. This is something investors especially want to see. But if the government regards the stock market as a tool to solve the problem, investors are in a state of fear. China's stock market has been used for state-owned enterprises to get out of difficulty, causing the stock market to rise and fall and has been criticized by the market.

The resolution of the split share structure has brought about a big bull market with a Shanghai stock index reaching 6124 points in 2006~2007. The resolution of the split share issue only gives the state-owned shares a liquidity right, but because of the policy and other reasons, this right has not been used in a systematic way, that is to say, there has not been a large reduction.

In the face of trillions of pension gaps, facing the potential imbalance of fiscal revenue and expenditure, facing the great change of state-owned enterprises that must be opened, the movement and reduction of state share rights are placed before the government. Therefore, we must pay close attention to the government's expectations and actions in this regard.

On the microcosmic point of view, the attitude of the government to the reform of state-owned enterprises will also directly affect the sustainability of the stock trend of the national team, such as the Chinese character head.

The government and people from all walks of life want to see a kind of Chinese stock market, which will largely affect the future trend of China's stock market. People's fear of stampede in the stock market is likely to affect the regulatory thinking of the regulatory authorities.

Therefore, in 2015, our stock market will be a complete policy market.

2, incremental capital market situation (institutional change progress)

I have struggled to put this item in the first place. Yes, after the bull market is established, the market generally only listens to capital, but considering the stock market, we must listen to the party's words or put it in the second place.

Financing is leverage, that is to say, the greater the base, the greater the power, the snowball.

This part of the incremental funding is affirmative.

The speed and effect of Shanghai, Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Hong Kong, Shanghai and New Zealand, and the institutional change process of China's stock allocation overseas funds, etc.

The new securities law gives the size of the space reserved for the capital market, the form, the way and the amount of the long term funds such as pensions entering the stock market.

The number of new funds brought by the wealth effect.

At the same time, we need to pay attention to the attitude of the government and regulators to the capital flow to the stock market.

In particular, the government's attitude has a huge impact on industrial capital, and industrial capital is already an important force affecting the trend of China's stock market.

3, registration impact

Registration system is a major event for China's stock market, and its impact may be far greater than all of us can imagine.

The logic of its impact is similar to that of Shanghai and Hong Kong. It will probably be divided into several stages: the launch time forecast, the content understanding of the program, the state of the launch, the numbness after the launch, the quantitative change period after the launch, and the qualitative change period after the launch.

It is foreseeable that this scheme will be more moderate, and will give the market a gradual acceptance of time and space, but how the market will understand and evolve is still unpredictable.

There are some countermeasures for Chinese people to pay attention to the above policies. In the light of the tension and cost of domestic funds in China, I am very worried that the "countermeasures" of the private sector will make the registration system particularly awkward. For example, there must be a company willing to make shares with a price earnings ratio of 3 times and 5 times.

Moreover, the impact of registration system on small stocks such as gem has begun and will continue to have a significant impact.

4, capital price (market real interest rate level)

The stock market solves the problem of rational allocation of resources, and also affects the allocation of resources in the market. Changes in the financial market will inevitably bring about changes in the cost of capital, and the price of market funds will directly affect the average price earnings ratio of the stock market.

This is an important logic for Guotai Junan to see more A shares in 2014. But judging from the highest 3200 points of the Shanghai Composite Index in 2015, it may be that their logic has changed.

Here, in fact, it implies the existence of banking industry in 2015, and the banking sector will affect the final trend of A shares to a large extent.

5, economic trend

Although it is also a policy market, but because of the policy landing and the effect, the economic trend will have a more close impact on the stock market. With the addition of the new fortune rich capital, it is inherently sensitive to the economic trend. If the economy is weak for a long time, the bailout policy will not work again, which will have a certain impact on the trend of A shares.

6. Overseas market (the extent of the problem may erupt)

I think that the main factor affecting China's stock market in 2014 was internal factors. So when predicting the impact factors of last year, I decided to exclude many experts' important factors -- "quantitative easing exit".

However, in 2015, I listed overseas markets for sixth items. Although relatively unimportant, I think the external factors of overseas markets will have a stronger impact on China's stock market than in 2014. The main reason is that the A share market, which has experienced recovery and institutional growth, begins to follow some basic rules of the stock market, such as the impact of overseas stock market and overseas economic trend on China's export growth.

The heat of TMT stocks in the US may directly affect the heat of the relevant board of the gem.

Of course, the latter three are the most talked about by economists and analysts, relatively unimportant.

The above is about the factors that affect the trend of China's stock market in 2015, and some factors need to be taken seriously, because these factors will have a great impact on the trend of the plate. For example, the landing speed and effect of a policy or system may affect the strong and weak trend of a certain sector.