"Currency War" Is The Market Promoter: Gold Prices Surged 9% In The New Year

Among the complicated factors of inflation, central banks have been regarded as one of the most powerful factors. With the expectation of "currency war" upgrading, whether gold will usher in a new round of inflation? How long will the dollar gold rise under the turmoil?

　　 Gold price New year's surge 9%

Similar to the market performance at the beginning of 2014, golden market suddenly entered the market after entering the new year. Data show that, to the 23 day closing, New York market gold futures price closed at $1292.6 an ounce, impacting the 1300 dollar integer mark. "In the current situation, in a series of risk After the impact, the market is still waiting for the result of the Greek general election, especially before the major risk events that will break away from the euro zone, investors are more cautious about the gold price of more than 1300 dollars. Wang Lin, a Futures Company analyst in Shanghai, said.

With the successive impact of risk events, hedge species gold has already taken advantage of the "counter attack". Statistics show that the price of gold futures in New York market has risen 9.3% this year. It has not only swept the downturn for two consecutive years, but also led the new year's commodity market, while the CRB index for tracking the price of packaged commodities in the same period dropped sharply by 6%.

Insiders pointed out that the previous gold market in January rose so much that it should be traced back to 2012. At that time, the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East and the market strongly anticipate that the Federal Reserve would launch the third round of quantitative easing policy, so that the gold price could break even the 1600 US dollar and the US $1700 mark.

As international gold prices skyrocketed, the cost of domestic investors' pre season "gold buying season" has also risen sharply. Reporters learned from a number of gold stores in Shanghai that Shanghai is currently trading in gold. Gold jewelry The price has reached about 330 yuan per gram, up nearly 10% from the end of 2014.

　　 Gold price or bottom up in "currency war"

It is worth noting that in the gold rally, central banks' "big move" often made the gold market unexpectedly jump, and the controversy of currency war continued to haunt the market. The competitive devaluation trend of the currency has become a powerful promoter in the gold market.

"The most surprising policy of the Swiss central bank in the past decades" is considered by the market to be a landmark event. Jiang Shu, a senior analyst at Xingye Bank, said that Switzerland had been supporting its exchange rate limit policy through the purchase of euros. The Swiss central bank announced the lifting of restrictions on the euro and Swiss franc. The market generally believed that it was forced to "move" to meet the easing policy of the European Central bank.

After the European Central Bank announced the launch of the easing policy of 60 billion euros a month, in the current major economies of China, the United States, Europe, Japan and other major economies, there has been a relaxed trend in Japan and Europe.

At the same time, in addition to the policies of the central bank such as Europe and Switzerland, the central bank, including India, Denmark and Canada, has announced interest rate cuts and other related policies. Among them, India announced a 25 basis point cut in interest rates. The market generally expects to cut interest rates several times during the year. The Danish Central Bank, which is highly concerned by the market, even cut interest rates twice in a week, and the rate of regular deposit certificates fell to a record negative interest rate.

"Loose competition among central banks also means that currencies are competing for depreciation, which is undoubtedly a strong attraction for gold, which is regarded as the" ultimate currency ". Some analysts expect that the bottom of the gold market will gradually become strong in the "currency war" game of various countries.

Some analysts expect to raise interest rates for the most bad Federal Reserve in 2015 or postpone it. "A simple way to stimulate the economy is to devalue the currency. Many economies are devaluing. If the US economy continues to strengthen and other economies remain soft, it may drag the Fed's rate hike." Investment bank Goldman Sachs analysis.

　　 "A good start" is yet to be tested.

For investors, whether the gold market can continue? The report released by Citibank believes that the price of gold has been bottomed out, and the JP Morgan commodities forecast report also indicated that the market of yellow gold will have a certain return attraction in 2015 because of the market turmoil and stock market demand.

Most analysts say gold prices may have completed a rapid rebound. As the "vane" of speculative capital of gold, the SPDR position of the largest gold ETF fund in the world is still increasing since January, and its position is 741.65 tons on the 23 day, which is more than 30 tons a year ago, indicating that it is still optimistic about its future trend.

"In the short term, investors still need to be very concerned about the Greek general election and the Federal Reserve policy." Jiang Shu said that the Greek general election and subsequent political games will bring greater disturbance to the market. Although the possibility of Greece's withdrawal from the euro area is still relatively small, different political parties' policies and policies will have different impacts on the market.

As a matter of fact, investors are generally aware that the investment operation of golden city is "on thin ice" after the current price of gold has risen sharply. "With the fluctuation of gold prices fluctuating by 6%, the difficulty of investment operation will increase significantly." Shen Gang, deputy general manager of Shanghai gold exchange, said.

Jiang Shu suggested that investors can choose a "stupid way" to guide market investment in a big fluctuation market. "For example, through historical data analysis, if we can see more gold ETF holdings changes, gold ETF holdings increase indicates that the risk of warming up, the risk of pursuing more gold will be relatively small, otherwise the risk is greater."