The Stock Index Showed A Shrinkage Shock, And The Total Weight Heart Moved Slightly Upward.

Judging from today's closing, the disk is still healthy.

The current round of quotations is a financial leading market. Today, the banking sector is callback, so the intensity of the index is not very large. But today, the banking sector is not bad. The possibility of the anti banking package on the banking sector is still there on Tuesday. If the bank has a small package, the index can be further confirmed.

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In view of the situation, the rise angle of the five day moving average is further established.

And there is support near the five day moving average, then according to the conventional evolution, Tuesday should not be too ugly, and even should continue to attack upward. The technical position of the banking sector is not bad at the moment, and the short selling power of the broker is close to the end after a phased callback.

This is a basic speculation, but do not assume that this assumption is established. Otherwise, if it is not lost to the market, it will lose itself first. If a position should rise, not rise or fall, it will be even worse.

Short term is still the five day average as an important line of operation, the market on the five day moving average, on the stock market opportunities.

Monday

Opportunities are increasing. Although most of these opportunities are subtle, they are not very eye-catching, but they are still workable.

At present, there are few plates and stocks with band attacks. Basically, it is a kind of concussion opportunity, and it will run away. The key point is still to lock the inflection point stocks. Last week, there were few stocks. From this Monday, the stocks of this technology position increased significantly. It is expected that this week will not be small for every day. After the adjustment of the market band, after many weeks of integration, many stocks have the characteristics of mini double bottom.

Tuesday's basic response is:

It's still looking for short line opportunities.

The biggest attraction lies in the five day moving average. As long as we do not lose the five day moving average, we will continue to look for more opportunities after we get out.

Of course, this is a short line, the central line or band is currently a stock holding signal.

On Tuesday, special attention should be paid to the trend of the financial sector, including banks, brokerages, insurance and so on.

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In the near future, the Shanghai stock index has a wide range of shocks before 3400, and the market view also disagrees with the future trend of the bull market.

Huang Yanming, the director of the Guotai Junan Research Institute, made a few comments on the market recently, and again issued a research report jointly with the chief macroeconomic analyst Ren Zeping. He reiterated that the current market logic remained unchanged, and the bull market would run through 2015.

According to the research report, in the 2010-2013 years, due to the lack of enough understanding of the necessity of speed shifting and the necessity of reform, the progress of reform slowed down, and the old growth mode refused to be cleared. It formed three big black holes in capital, plus leveraged debt cycles, expanding the demand for ineffective capital and pushing up risk-free interest rates.

As the new central leadership group pushed ahead with reform in 2014, market risk preferences improved significantly.

Since the two quarter of 2014, the real estate sector, which has a high degree of marketization in the three big black holes, has launched a long period of liquidation, and has forced the clearing of the two major areas of the system.

The reform of finance, taxation and state owned enterprises has accelerated the pace of blocking the three major capital black holes, shrinking the inefficient financing needs, creating conditions for policy easing, guiding risk free interest rates to fall, and enhancing risk preferences.

The risk-free interest rate has lowered the yield of shadow banking products, and the risk-taking preference has improved the confidence of all sectors of the community to restore China's future confidence and start to configure stocks representing future assets, capital flows from real estate and shadow banking to the stock market, and the stock market gets rid of the stock game dilemma and moves towards the new era of incremental game.

According to the research report, the "pitional cattle" and "reform cattle" launched in 2014 were similar to 1996-2001 years in China, 1970-1980 years in Japan, 1983-1992 years in Taiwan and 1992-2002 years in Korea.

The bull market can be summarized as follows: reform blocking capital black holes, shrinking inefficient financing needs, and creating conditions for policy easing so as to guide risk-free interest rates to fall, reform and improve resource allocation efficiency, enhance risk preference, restore social confidence and guide incremental capital to enter the market.

For the future trend of the market, the research report thinks that in early 2015, the bull market entered the second wave, and the fast bull entered the slow bull stage, and the wave increased.

The speed up of reform is confirmed by the market, the release of dividends is still needed for a long time, the bottom of the growth shift is gradually proved, the risk of economic stall is disappeared, the capacity to de leverage is still going on, and the value recovery has entered a reasonable interval, and the central shift is still driven by the decline in interest rates, the improvement of risk preference and the improvement of profitability. Regulators are protecting the bull market from looking forward to the slow bull market, supervising the two loans and entrust loans, investors have the intention of deleveraging, the decrease of incremental capital inflows, the international market "black Swans" dancing, the Fed's interim interest rate increase, commodity prices plummeting, European QE, the new Xingyang economic debt crisis, and disturbing the international market and conducting it to the domestic market.

After the second half of 2015, the bull market may enter the third wave, and there may be a big wave.

Economic bottom, price deflation, enterprises usher in the dawn of profit, state-owned enterprises reform, 13th Five-Year plan and other heavy policy landing; loose policy, further decline in interest rates, further increase of risk preference, shift of valuation center, release of favorable regulatory authorities to launch registration system, increase of IPO supply worries and early digestion and mitigation.