PTA Industry Chain Can Be Described As "Thirty Years Hedong, Thirty Years Hexi".

In the field investigation, reporters feel the PTA industry's "golden age" away.

Without high profits, instead of the whole industry losses, enterprises to reduce load, stop production, maintenance has become the norm.

In the industrial chain, the inferior polyester enterprises have been straightened up, and have never had a "bull" in the battle for the right to speak.

Such a pformation is actually the result of the pfer of industrial profits from upstream to downstream. The root of this change lies in the change of cost side.

"At present, the PTA market has changed from supply and demand to cost side."

In the PTA spot market for decades, traders melt (a pseudonym) told reporters that this is actually determined by the current fundamentals.

The continuous decline of oil prices has made the cost center of chemical products go down to a higher level, and the supply and demand situation of upstream and downstream has led to differences in profits among all sectors.

It is understood that in the PX - PTA polyester industry chain, PX enterprises have lost their most powerful position because of the rapid increase in capacity in recent two years.

When PTA and PX continue to lose production, domestic PTA enterprises and Asian PX enterprises cut production momentum.

In 2014, the domestic PTA enterprises carried out two large-scale joint production and price protection operations, one in summer, from May to early August, and finally ended with a limited production. However, this action has achieved the goal of giving profits to PX enterprises to a certain extent, and the loss of PTA enterprises has decreased.

Another time is at the end of the year, when PTA enterprises once again started production price protection, unexpectedly encountered international crude oil crash.

This limited production price failed to prevent the PTA price from falling. However, due to the extrusion of upstream PX raw material profits, the profits of PTA enterprises increased.

In mid December 2014, the price of PX and naphtha fell to a line of $320 / ton, and the PX factory price was compressed to the cost, while the PTA production profit rose to 200 yuan / ton.

The financial industry indicated that the domestic PTA production profit has been greatly reduced by the three consecutive years of large scale expansion. The dynamic profit is mostly negative, or lingers around the cost line, while the polyester link product inventory is at a low level, and the price of products is relatively lower than that of PTA and MEG, and production continues to be profitable.

In the survey, the reporters also felt that, compared to the PTA manufacturers with a lot of pressure, polyester companies had better days than others, and the profit of weaving machines was better.

As the people of these enterprises say, goods are not to be sold, but 2014 is "laughing through it".

New Feng Ming group, a modern large-scale joint-stock enterprise integrating polyester, polyester spinning and import and export trade, sold 1 million 800 thousand tons in 2014 (exports accounted for 7% to 8%), and sales revenue was 15 billion yuan (excluding VAT), Achieving Profits Tax 600 million to 700 million yuan, with a profit margin of 3% to 4%.

According to Bian Guangqing, general manager of Zhejiang new Feng Ming import and Export Co., Ltd., which is subordinate to the group, influenced by the price reduction of polyester and the rigid demand of cloth, the weaving profit was good from 10 to December last year, and the inventory accumulated earlier was also gradually digested.

"Polyester prices were sluggish and many slicing factories were eliminated. Last November, we achieved the best monthly profit in two years."

In his view, after several years of inventory, polyester filament was strongly supported, and the company's profitability in 2015 is expected to be better than that in 2014.

In Shaoxing, the reporter of futures Daily reported that the company had a better profit in industrial yarn.

The production of industrial silk is first ordered, and then there are products, and the purchase of PTA is now purchased. Therefore, in the process of falling raw material prices, the earlier signed industrial yarn orders will yield a certain dividend.

"Raw materials have fallen faster, while downstream products have fallen relatively slowly, and market demand has also been strong, making them better.

"

The company's sales staff said.

From the perspective of enterprise ecological environment, the downstream polyester links are much healthier than the upstream PTA links.

"At the end of last year, it is difficult to get a large number of orders. Polyester companies will have a lot lower operating rate in January.

But this month, no polyester enterprise has been cut down and its production rate is normal.

A salesperson from Limited by Share Ltd of Tong Kun group told reporters that since 2014, the downstream demand has continued to grow, and the market is in the "best period". The funds are running smoothly and there is no pressure on the enterprises.

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With the increase of production profit margin, the bargaining power of polyester enterprises to PTA enterprises is also gradually improving.

At present, the total production capacity of PTA in China is 43 million 480 thousand tons / year, and the production capacity of polyester is 44 million 180 thousand tons / year. The production capacity of the two plants is very close. However, even if the polyester plant starts full load, it can only consume 38 million tons of PTA capacity per year, and the competition pressure of PTA enterprises will further increase.

For PTA enterprises, the sales negotiation process was difficult in 2015, and polyester enterprises took the initiative in negotiations.

According to Jiaxing Petrochemical related departments in charge, PTA sales contract in 2015 has not been signed, spot sales are facing greater pressure, but because Asian PX capacity is also overcapacity relative to PTA, the loss of pricing power to the lower reaches.

The right to speak in raw material procurement has increased.

"In December 2014, the import volume of PX reached a record 1 million 178 thousand tons. On the one hand, PTA enterprises have some low demand for stockpiling raw materials. On the other hand, PTA enterprises hope to get more ACP bargaining chips."

Wang Yuanyuan, a Yongan futures analyst, said that the ACP negotiations in 2014 were only two times. PTA enterprises have initially obtained the pricing power of raw material procurement, and the adjustment of PX operating rate has begun to focus more on the PTA industry.

Wang Yuanyuan said, at present, in the PX PTA polyester industry chain, as the earliest polyester enterprise with capacity expansion, with the follow up of the supporting capacity of PX and PTA at the raw material terminal and the reduction of the finished product inventory of polyester products, 2014 gradually came out of the recession cycle.

At the same time, in 2015, the 8% growth rate of domestic polyester industry was lower than the growth rate of PX in Asia and domestic PTA, which is as high as 15%, and the right to speak in the PTA industry chain is expected to continue to "move downward".