PTA Futures Holdings Surged.

It is understood that after the new year's day this year, PTA futures followed crude oil prices sharply downward, market funds' "bottom" enthusiasm was gradually ignited.

"At present, the price of PTA has been below 5000 yuan / ton, which has only appeared 4 times in 15 years from 2000 to now."

An Jianhua, a senior PTA spot market reporter, told reporters that the first time was between August 2001 and February 2002. The second time was the outbreak of SARS in May 2003. The third time was in 2008 2008, and now it was the fourth time.

The price of PTA reaches the lowest level every time and stays for a long time.

He said frankly that historically low price places provide a big margin of safety for many bulls.

In addition, in 2014, the PTA industry alliance has made PTA inventory control in a reasonable range after several successive production cuts, and it will also support prices.

From the seasonal law of PTA and spot market, the liquidity of enterprises gradually returned to normal after new year's day, and the factors such as stocking of downstream enterprises before the Spring Festival often cause the seasonal rise of PTA prices.

"According to historical law, January is the highest probability of PTA rise in a year, and the rate of PTA rising in January has reached 68% in the past 20 years."

It is said that with the price reaching the lowest level in 2008, the sound of "bottom up" funds in the industry chain has been heard.

Nowadays, the intention of bulls is obvious, that is, what is the weight of empty space if they want to "copy the bottom"?

Act as

The crude oil of the upstream products has dropped from 100 to 110 US dollars per barrel a year ago to about 45 US dollars / barrel, and the price has dropped by more than half. The price of PX has fallen to 800 from the current 800 US dollars / ton six months ago, or 33%.

The collapse of cost has undoubtedly become a short supply.

According to industry estimates, compared with the decline in crude oil, theoretically

There is still more room for making up.

At the time of the 2008 - 2009 financial crisis, the price of crude oil fell to $30 - 50 / barrel, when the price of PX was basically maintained at $550 to $700 / ton.

Corresponding to the current crude oil price, the reasonable valuation of PX should be around us $650 / ton.

According to the processing charge of 720 yuan / ton, the corresponding cost of PTA is 3900 yuan / ton.

"According to this valuation, the current PTA period, spot prices have a larger drop in space, and the PTA main contract 1505 is more than the spot price of 200 yuan / ton, the current arbitrage space is larger, so the short money is still concentrated."

The insiders said.

Under the circumstances of the two sides' different opinions, the focus of the current market speculation is focused on the impact of the cost side changes on the market and how strong the market's "bottom up" sentiment is.