Can Cotton Continue To "Tall" Market?

According to relevant information, in 2015, if domestic cotton prices did not show larger supply and demand contradictions and prices rose sharply, the government departments would not issue additional quotas other than 894 thousand tons and 1% tariff quotas in principle. This news dispelled the idea that the foreign trade companies, trade companies and cotton textile enterprises should supplement the import mode of sliding tariffs and processing trade quotas.

According to customs statistics, imports of cotton in 2012, 2013 and 2014 were 513 tons, 4 million 150 thousand tons, 2 million 440 thousand tons, 2013 and 2014, respectively, down to 19.1% and 41.2% respectively. Among them, the proportion of US cotton, India cotton and West African cotton decreased to varying degrees. The influence of quotas, prices and textile enterprises' ability to bear the market share was a major factor. Several large foreign and domestic traders were generally pessimistic about the import situation of foreign cotton in 2015. They even thought that the total import volume in 2015 would not exceed 150 tons, while the forecast data in the monthly reports of USDA and ICAC were 1 million 524 thousand tons and 1 million 733 thousand tons respectively, which were larger than those in the previous months.

1, 894 thousand tons 1%

The quota of cotton imports will be adjusted or adjusted, but the hard index of cotton spinning mills with more than 50 thousand spindles and import and export performance will not change, so the 894 thousand tons will not digest fully in full year.

The 1% tariff quota that has been carried down is about 300 thousand tons (which must be used before the end of February), so the total quota of 2015 is about 1 million 200 thousand tons. So, what is the expected amount of the 1 million 500 thousand ton? 1, the industry rumors that the government will give incentives and incentives to the textile enterprises of Xinjiang cotton for 2014/15 in the year of 6:1, and the proportion of the original allocation will be broken down according to the proportion of 6:1 or 7:1 or 8:1. This is also the reason why the quota policy can not be released at the end of January. Industry estimates 2014

Two, the probability of paying the full amount of tariff on the import of cotton is objective.

India cotton CIF quotation fell to 60 cents / pound and the following customs tariff clearance rate is large, but from the angle of "minimum purchase protection price of seed cotton" in 2015, and the protection of farmers by the "India cotton" and the stability of the cotton planting area in 2015, the price of India state owned Cotton Corp will not be very low.

There are not many resources left. If Chinese buyers want to order high grade cotton, they can only think of it from foreign or other national enterprises, and the difficulties can be known. Therefore, the pressure or bottom space of ICE is not large enough. From the price of ICE disk and spot price, there is no opportunity to pay full duty import. From the feedback of China's upstream, downstream and traders, the market price of domestic real cotton and Xinjiang cotton has stabilized near 13000 yuan / ton and 14000 yuan / ton respectively. At present, India cotton net recharge price is also near 14000 yuan / ton, and 2128 level "competition with Taiwan". As of January 15th, the US cotton signed export volume accounted for 87% of its annual export volume.

The middleman thinks that the positioning of India cotton should be a contest with the real estate cotton, that is, the CIF price of the short line S-6 is close to 60 cents / pound (on the 24-26 day of January, the factory price of the S-6 ginning factory in India is concentrated at 63-64 cents / pound), so once the CCI throws the store, the new cotton price of India cotton will be greatly reduced by 6-8 cents / pound in the 2014/15 year. Under the condition that China's national cotton store is no longer out of the way, it is not possible to exclude Chinese buyers from paying 40% tariff for the purchase of India cotton.

Three.

It is still the focus of purchasing and operation of China's cotton textile enterprises and traders in 2014/15.

With the continuous weakening of consumption power, Xinjiang cotton sales moved to the mainland. Uzbekistan and other Central Asian cotton and high grade cotton in the Chinese market are much more difficult to enter the Chinese market than American cotton, Australian cotton and India cotton.

It is understood that in the international market, only the United States, Australia and Brazil are the main cotton pickers in the international market. Among them, the quality of Brazil cotton belongs to the middle and inferior parts of the machine. The control of the "three silk" and impurity content is basically the same as that of the Xinjiang regiment, and there is a big gap in spinnability and grade between the Australian cotton and the American cotton. Therefore, the recognition and cognition of the Chinese buyers are significantly lower than those of the previous years.

Increase the tax rebate, tax and credit loans, financial support, and so on, to reduce the risk of a large number of skilled workers laid-off and social stability; second, the appreciation of the dollar, the RMB into the rapid depreciation of the channel, the impact on the import of foreign cotton gradually increased, the cost of Chinese textile enterprises to buy cotton, India cotton and West African cotton increased; third, in the US cotton and cotton cotton contract signing export "red hot", India cotton production, export volume continued to increase, and domestic consumption to accelerate the weakness of "internal distress" situation, the United States cotton or will seize the India cotton prices and export policy errors, in India cotton and India cotton merchants in China will be squeezed out of the market periphery. Some cotton traders reflected 2-5 points of attention to cotton imports in three months: first, the Chinese government's support for the entire textile industry after the Spring Festival.