Guo Shiliang: Investors Should Keep An Eye On The Government'S "Face"

In view of the bull market in the past six months, the general view is that this bull market is based on a highly leveraged environment.

At the same time, with the smooth opening of Shanghai and Hong Kong links, it has become the fuse of the current market directly.

It is undeniable that the rapid growth of the scale of the two financial businesses has created more positive impact on the market.

From the data analysis, in July 2014, the A share market's two scale business was about 450 billion yuan.

By November, the two scale of the A share market climbed to 700 billion yuan directly.

However, in less than three months, the market size of the A share market has increased to 1 trillion and 120 billion in two.

After only half a year's experience, the A share market's two scale business has increased by more than 1 times.

However, with the continuous growth of the two financial businesses, all kinds of funds have also entered the A share market with different channels, which has accelerated the speed of the stock market directly.

Among them, the umbrella trust, for example, in recent six months, all kinds of funds have access to the market through umbrella financing trust with new financing channels, and have greatly improved the overall leverage level.

During the period, the scale of the stock has increased in scale.

Up to now, the stock size of the umbrella trust market has exceeded the level of 150 billion yuan.

In addition, since the end of last year, many P2P platforms have begun to gradually test the water stock allocation business, generally enjoy ultra-low entry threshold and ultra short audit cycle, and at the same time, provide investors with a high leverage ratio which is far higher than that of the two brokerages.

At this point, the continued boom of P2P stock distribution business also reflects the frenzied attitude of the stock market to a certain extent.

In fact, the root cause of the rapid rise of the current market is the pformation of the government's attitude, thus laying the foundation for the stock market to rise.

At the same time, all kinds of innovative tools also take advantage of this opportunity to give full play to their unique advantages, thus becoming a catalyst for the rise of the stock market.

It is the so-called "become also a loser."

For China's stock market, the attitude of the government will directly determine the life and death of the stock market.

In fact, over the past month or so, the government's attitude towards the stock market has changed significantly.

In January 16th this year, the securities and Futures Commission finishes the on-site inspection of the financing business of 45 securities companies.

Among them, the SFC informed the 12 securities companies of the two financial business violations, and CITIC Securities, Haitong Securities and Guotai Junan adopted a suspension of the newly opened margin accounts for three months.

At the same time, the SFC also unexpectedly raised the threshold of the two assets and returned to its original level of 500 thousand yuan.

At this point, the two business growth was directly impacted, and the 19 day stock market also experienced a rare collapse.

In January 27th this year, news came out that the bank tightened the umbrella trust and adjusted the relevant contents.

Later, the rumor was finally confirmed.

Among them, take Everbright Bank as an example, the non A-class customer allocation can be 1:3, and now it is reduced to 1:2.5.

In addition, the Securities Association also issued a notice requiring members to report to the CPPCC members.

Judging from the above measures, although the market has not caused a heavy blow, but also to a certain extent reflects the current government's strong demand for the "deleveraging" of the stock market.

Then, does the government's attitude towards the stock market change? Does it indicate that the A shares will soon face a turning point?

In fact, the government's successive measures of "deleveraging" on the stock market are, on the one hand, reflecting the government's warning of the current "mad bull market", and on the other hand, the healthy development of the stock market in the future.

However, it is worth noting that when the A shares close to the 3400 important juncture, the RMB has accelerated depreciation trend.

Recently, the RMB has closed to the US dollar, and for the first time, it has broken the target fluctuation limit of 2%, which has also brought certain uncertainty to the capital market.

However, for the current market, Guo Shiliang believes that the policy characteristics of the Chinese stock market must be considered comprehensively.

In other words, when the market is in a relatively sensitive area, it often involves rumours, rumours, rumours and rumours.

And in this process, it is also very large.

The high level washing up of large organizations or high level distribution.

However, because of the deep involvement of the former capital, even the government is right.

The attitude has changed, but at this time the stock market will not be easy to have a clear directional change, but more is the market that plagues investors.

In addition, in view of the current bull market, in the final analysis, the government intends to repair the investment and financing functions of the stock market, and pave the way for the full spread of the registration system in the future.

As of January 22nd this year,

The first 644 enterprises have been accepted, of which 41 have already been passed, and 603 have not yet met.

In 2015, the IPO speed of the A share market began to show an accelerating trend. It is estimated that the IPO rhythm of the A share market will also increase significantly this year.

Obviously, when the investment and financing functions of the stock market can be quickly repaired, the registration system will be launched smoothly, which will facilitate the smooth implementation of the registration system.

At this point, the purpose of the government to boost the stock market will also be successfully completed.

However, when the registration system can be rolled out, it will inevitably cause a certain impact on the A share market, and the junk loss stocks will also be sold wildly by the market.

To sum up, if Chinese investors want to make profits in the stock market, they must also keep a close eye on the government's "face".