Bull Market Logic: There Will Be Two Big Quotes In 2015.

In the near future, the Shanghai stock index has a wide range of shocks before 3400, and the market view also disagrees with the future trend of the bull market.

Huang Yanming, the director of the Guotai Junan Research Institute, made a few comments on the market recently, and again issued a research report jointly with the chief macroeconomic analyst Ren Zeping. He reiterated that the current market logic remained unchanged, and the bull market would run through 2015.

The research report pointed out that in the 2010-2013 years, due to the lack of enough understanding of the necessity of speed shifting and the necessity of reform, the progress of reform slowed down, and the old growth mode refused to be cleared up, thus forming the three capital black holes.

Recycling, inflation, ineffective capital demand, and risk-free interest rates.

As the new central leadership group pushed ahead with reform in 2014, market risk preferences improved significantly.

Since the two quarter of 2014, the real estate sector, which has a high degree of marketization in the three big black holes, has launched a long period of liquidation, and has forced the clearing of the two major areas of the system.

Fiscal, state and other reforms speed up blocking the three capital black hole, shrinking the ineffective financing needs.

Create conditions to guide risk-free interest rates and enhance risk preferences.

The risk-free interest rate has lowered the yield of shadow banking products, and the risk-taking preference has improved the confidence of all sectors of the community to restore China's future confidence and start to configure stocks representing future assets, capital flows from real estate and shadow banking to the stock market, and the stock market gets rid of the stock game dilemma and moves towards the new era of incremental game.

According to the research report, the "pitional cattle" and "reform cattle" launched in 2014 were similar to 1996-2001 years in China, 1970-1980 years in Japan, 1983-1992 years in Taiwan and 1992-2002 years in Korea.

This round of bull market can be summarized as: reform to plug the capital black hole, shrink the invalid financing demand, and create conditions for policy loosening to guide risk free interest rate decline, reform to improve the efficiency of resource allocation and improve the risk preference to revitalize the social confidence to guide the incremental funds into the market.

For the future trend of the market,

It is believed that in early 2015, the bull market entered the second wave, and the fast bull entered the slow bull stage, and the wave increased.

The speed up of reform is confirmed by the market, the release of dividends is still needed for a long time, the bottom of the growth shift is gradually proved, the risk of economic stall is disappeared, the capacity to de leverage is still going on, and the value recovery has entered a reasonable interval, and the central shift is still driven by the decline in interest rates, the improvement of risk preference and the improvement of profitability. Regulators are protecting the bull market from looking forward to the slow bull market, supervising the two loans and entrust loans, investors have the intention of deleveraging, the incremental capital inflow is reduced, the "black swan event" in the international market is dancing, the Fed's interim interest rate rises, commodity prices plummeted, European QE, emerging economy debt crisis worries, and the disturbance of the international market is pmitted to the domestic market.

After the second half of 2015, the bull market may enter the third wave, and there may be a big wave.

Economic bottom, price deflation, enterprises usher in the dawn of profit, state-owned enterprises reform, 13th Five-Year plan and other heavy policy landing; loose policy, further decline in interest rates, further increase of risk preference, shift of valuation center, release of favorable regulatory authorities to launch registration system, increase of IPO supply worries and early digestion and mitigation.