The Bottom Line Is: Letting Go Is Not Without Interference.

Should we not worry about the continued depreciation of the RMB? In fact, the most important thing is to clarify the core idea. Although the Central Bank of China supports the exchange rate marketization, it has not promised to completely withdraw from China's foreign exchange market, and its role in stabilizing the market at a critical moment helps to reduce market panic and avoid abnormal fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate.

Previously, since

After the introduction of QE by the central bank in January 22nd, the yuan began to depreciate.

In January 23rd, the Central Bank of China has substantially lowered the central parity of RMB to the US dollar by 95 basis points; in January 26th, the Central Bank of China continued to sharply reduce the central parity of RMB, and the yuan once approached the US dollar to close down.

It can be seen that the Central Bank of China has not intervened.

However, the China foreign exchange trading center data show that the central parity of RMB against the US dollar set by the central bank yesterday was 6.1282, up 82 basis points from 6.1364 of the previous trading day, the biggest increase since December 8th last year, and second consecutive trading days.

In fact,

It is one of the best indicators to spy on the intentions of the Central Bank of China. The Central Bank of China can maintain stability by raising the middle price, and the fluctuation of the spot exchange rate of the RMB is conducive to the marketization of the exchange rate.

Looking forward to 2015, many brokerages and mainstream foreign exchange analysts predict that the timing of RMB devaluation is not yet ripe. The exchange rate will fluctuate in a range such as 6.0~6.3, that is, depreciation to 6.3 or the bottom line of the Central Bank of China.

Analysts pointed out that the central bank lacks the impetus to devalue the RMB for a long time.

If the motive force for the devaluation is to stimulate exports, then the data show that China's import and export growth rate in December 2014 is better than market expectations, and the pattern of high surplus caused by exports stronger than imports continues.

"Unlike other countries, China still maintains a relatively high economic growth rate.

It is a positive trend; moreover, the most critical export data have not been greatly affected, so the Central Bank of China does not have enough power to push the depreciation of the renminbi if it is not necessary.

Gao Luyi, chief economist of China's RBS in Scotland (LouisKuijs), said in an exclusive interview with the first Financial Daily reporter.

In addition, since 2014, the RMB internationalization process has been accelerating with the central bank's currency swap, RMB international settlement and offshore RMB clearing bank as the main content, and the RMB exchange rate needs to be kept stable.

"A devaluation of the RMB exchange rate is clearly against the goal of internationalization, which limits the extent of the weakening of the renminbi.

In addition, in order to prevent cross-border arbitrage and arbitrage, the RMB exchange rate needs to maintain the necessary volatility. In addition, China's phased international capital outflows and inflows will alternate in 2015, which will also bring about fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate.

Xie Yaxuan, director of macro research of China Merchants Securities (24.20, 0.10, 0.41%), pointed out.

In addition, regarding the RMB exchange rate or worries about foreign exchange occupation, Guan Qing believes that this problem can be completely hedged by the Chinese central bank's MLF, PSL and other currencies. The single factor of the RMB exchange rate will not be a tight constraint on the liquidity of the stock and bond markets.