Establishing A Financial Market Dominated By Equity Financing

If China wants to take the road of innovation and innovation, we must establish a financial market dominated by equity financing.

There are two important points:

First of all, we must liberate the registration system of IPO and give all enterprises fair opportunities to stimulate innovation.

At this point, we believe that the promotion of the IPO registration system in 15 years is likely to exceed expectations.

In the past, our IPO was serving a small number of enterprises, so the power capital was born.

Why did Li Jiacheng even want to leave China? Some people say that they are empty China. In my view, it is better to say that the trend is over, because in the past, the power and capital in China could be eaten freely, and under the idea of the new government's common prosperity, the power capital had no advantage.

Now the core concept of the new government is common prosperity. This means that IPO must serve all people and give all enterprises the opportunity to enjoy common prosperity rather than stay in the service stage for minorities.

Therefore, we firmly believe that under the concept of common prosperity, the IPO registration system will soon be realized, thus laying the foundation for China's innovation mechanism. Chairman Shaw also said that the stock registration system is the top priority of this year's capital market.

There have been many foreshadowing in this area, for example, under the decentralization of authority, the implementation of the new company law in the past 14 years has greatly simplified the company's registration process, turning capital from paid into subscribed, which is also an important reason for the surge in the number of new companies registered in the last two years.

For example, 15 years ago, the registration system of corporate bonds has been implemented, and the last step of stock registration system has been broken.

Second, we must break the rigid payment of bond financing, otherwise, no one will buy the stock.

The reason is also very simple. If all of them are like super day debt, they will not only lose money and interest, but they will eventually lose even the penalty. If the purchase rate is almost doubled over the next year, what should we do to buy stocks? Everyone should respond to the purchase of another accident, and then find the suspension.

Recently, another issuer of Hunan and Hubei debt has been selling all kinds of money and selling almost all the valuable assets in order to repay debts publicly. This is the real life capital market's Lei Lei Feng.

If all bonds are rigid payment, then funds will flow to these high yield and low efficiency enterprises, resulting in mismatch of resources and deterioration of economic structure.

So if we compare the United States with Japan and Europe, we can see another important difference is that the United States let Lehman go bankrupt, so we must learn to discriminate the good and bad of the company, and Japan and Europe have not broken the contract, so the Japanese SONY can lose all the money that could have been given to others for more than a decade.

In Europe, many rogue countries, such as Greece, have been unable to withstand the extortion from the eurozone. They also believe that their debts will eventually be okay, so they are willing to buy the junk debt of these countries, and ultimately the financial resources go to inefficient countries, and they can not support the innovation and pformation of the economy.

So if we want to take the road of innovation in China, we must break the rigid payment of debt.

But so far, we have all been competing against each other, similar to Europe and Japan, so whether we will break the hope of breaking the match in the future? We feel that the hope is great, because the new government is building a firewall to prepare for breaking the rigid exchange.

In the past, why can't we just break up, ST shares can not be delisted, because the participation of many retail investors, and once the company has gone bankrupt or delisted, the retail investors are very poor. It is very likely that their savings will be lost all their lives. Therefore, based on the consideration of stability, we have been maintaining the market.

But now we find that the new corporate bond issuance system has introduced the investor classification system. In the future, if we want to buy AAA class bonds, we should first become qualified investors, and the starting point of qualified investors is 3 million, including the new three boards. There are similar arrangements. Only 5 million of the assets can buy the new three board stocks.

And this is similar to the establishment of a firewall, since the money can be capricious, in case the real purchase of bonds, stock went bankrupt, the big bankruptcy proceedings to move a machine back, you have 3 million, even take back 1% can continue to live.

Including the recent inspection of securities margin trading business, many people say that management can not see that the stock market is rising too fast. In my opinion, many brokerages have opened the qualification of margin trading to those who should not be open. If 100 thousand of the customers are giving people the qualification to finance and securities lending, if they really break down, they will probably lose their assets, so the core of margin check is to ensure 500 thousand of the firewall, so that even if something goes wrong, they will lose.

The most important firewall in the past 15 years is the deposit insurance system. In the past, one of the important concerns that could not be broken was the risk of contagion, which led to systemic financial risks.

But if more than 500 thousand of the deposits are fully guaranteed, even if there is a bank default, it will not lead to a large-scale run. After all, there are government guarantees under 500 thousand.

In turn, it means breaking the rigid exchange is possible.

Therefore, if we want to become an innovation driven economy, we must vigorously develop equity financing, liberate the restrictions on equity financing, and break the bond's cash payment.

But let's think again, if the stock is issued in large scale and the bonds are still in default, then how can these stocks and bonds attract others to buy? So we say that at that time there will be interest rates cut, so long as interest rates are low, no one will be afraid of buying these things.

So in our view, the order of interest rates is very important.

We find that China urgently needs an institution that is superior to one line and three meetings to coordinate and promote financial policies.

At present, the best order is to release bond financing, break the rigid exchange, let the finance feed the entity and eliminate the potential financial bubbles.

The worse order is that the central mama is forced to release water after deflation pressure. After that, the stock debt continues to rise. Finally, the financing and breaking up of the gang will lead to a sharp rise and fall, and then there will be no more.

So at present, we can not judge the time point of reducing interest rates, and can only give the best path of expectation.

Another important question is, what is the hope of China's economy in the future? When will the economy stabilize after the interest rate cut?

By the end of 14

Once there was a dispute between big and small. In short, we thought it was good because it was cheap.

Small ones are not good because they are small and expensive.

As a result, if we follow this train of thought, it will be hard to die for 15 years, because the small ones are bigger than the big ones.

So there is no obsession in investing in China, just like the elephant could fly last year.

So who is better? From the perspective of economic structure, we think the most important thing is to understand the changes brought about by the reform of state-owned enterprises.

We conclude that the core of SOE reform is two, one is mixed ownership, the other two is classified supervision.

And these two articles are actually one, that is, the industry that monopolized the state-owned enterprises in the past has been shared with everyone.

So what industries do state-owned enterprises monopolize? The manufacturing industry that is not fully competitive is all in the service sector.

We carefully compared the investment proportion of state-owned enterprises in various service industries in the past three years, and found that the industries that we like now basically belong to the service industry that is gradually being withdrawn from state-owned enterprises and private enterprises are entering.

For example, in the past few months, the securities companies that everyone likes very much, Jiuding has taken the license of securities dealers, and the securities companies are opening up to the public funds.

Private banks are also letting go, and non banking financial institutions are also liberalized, such as insurance.

I once did not understand insurance very much, because it is true that the current bull market and the investment behavior of many insurance companies have little to do with the investment behavior of many insurance companies. But some people have given me important inspiration, especially in line with the concept of common prosperity. In the light of common prosperity, we will receive inheritance tax and property tax in the future. Insurance can help tax avoidance, and with the aging of the population, insurance can help everyone to provide for the elderly.

So it can be seen that no matter the securities companies, banks and insurance are all service industries.

The media, sports and education, including Internet finance, all belong to the past.

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In the past, we could only see CCTV. Now we have many choices such as "good voice" and so on. The Chinese national football team was ridiculed all the time, because it never won, but now even winning three games is incredible. It is also because Hengda has entered, and all kinds of baby funds have accelerated the interest rate marketization and brought benefits to the people.

So we find that the industries you like in recent years, big or small, belong to the service industry.

Therefore, we firmly believe that China's economy will be a service sector in the future. Due to the change of population structure, China's industrialization has come to a later stage, and it will soon be over.

In the past, because of the large number of Chinese people, their wages were low and their money was small, so the rate of return on capital was high, which was very suitable for industrialization. And through bank credit, they could provide financing for industrialization.

In the future, there will be fewer Chinese people, so the labor force's wages are higher and more money, so the rate of return on capital will decline, so it is no longer suitable for industrial development, and the rise of labor wages is most conducive to the development of service industry.

In the era of service industry, because of the decline in return on capital, there is no way to provide financing through bank credit. Only when the capital market knows how to valuate the service industry, the pformation of industry from the future to the service industry must be supported by developed capital markets.

So we firmly believe that the future is

The great era is also a big era of service industry, and the service industry is the future of China's economy.

For industry, there are only two ways out in the future. One is to find new demands in foreign countries by enhancing competitiveness and high-end manufacturing.

The two is that the leftover is king in the country, and the steel industry is also in the United States, but only a few companies can provide stable returns every year.