Market Return To Stock Game White Horse Growth Stocks Optimistic

From the perspective of market liquidity, the marginal margin of optimism is weakened and the market returns to the "stock game".

First, the easing of interest rate cuts and other easing policies are still absent. The expectation of monetary easing in the pre market market is expected to further decline. On the one hand, the central bank policy remains relatively neutral. Recently, the central bank carried out 7 days and 28 days of reverse repurchase, releasing 55 billion of the funds. However, the interest rate level was on the market, and more aimed at hedging the external market share and the smooth front of the fund, rather than guiding the interest rate downward.

On the other hand, the recent pressure on RMB depreciation has increased significantly, and monetary easing has also been limited.

The Fed's Conference on interest rates conveyed relative pigeon information, which, to a certain extent, gave regulators a longer window to observe the trend of the economy and the necessity of policy implementation.

In addition, the stock market liquidity level, the incremental capital inflow has slowed down, and last week, the net changes in the net pfer of bank securities were again significantly outflow; from the EPFR data monitoring, the outflow of foreign capital is continuing.

The lack of incremental funding to push the A share market into the stock market in the short term, and into the overall shock pattern.

In terms of macro-economy, the pressure of steady growth highlights the importance of infrastructure. We should pay attention to the theme draught of the next regional plate.

The latest industrial profits in December 2014 rose by 3.3%, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous month, of which 8% fell by 8% in December, a 3.8 percentage point lower than that in November.

Meso level, prices of steel, cement, coal and other industrial products are still weak, indicating that the current downward pressure on the economy is still relatively large.

In the past half a month, the NDRC has approved 11 capital construction projects such as highways, railways, bridges and airports, with a total investment of more than 110 billion yuan.

At the local level, the 28 provinces have opened or opened two local sessions. In addition to the specific growth targets set by Shanghai and Tibet, the other 26 provinces have lowered the target of GDP growth in 2015 and put forward corresponding investment targets. Transportation, energy and water conservancy are still the key directions.

In the context of the big cycle of real estate and the fact that the capacity of manufacturing industry has not yet been completed, increasing infrastructure investment has become the main means of steady growth in 2015. The importance of regional planning strategy has also become more prominent, and relevant investment opportunities deserve attention.

In addition to the theme of "one belt and one road" and "Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei" before the market is relatively hot, the "Yangtze River Economic Belt" is also an important outlet for the regional plate.

In terms of asset allocation, we put forward the logic of gradual pition from balanced allocation to Alpha.

Why Alpha assets are relatively dominant in the current market? Apart from the loss of elasticity of the blue chip market itself, which is subject to changes in the regulatory attitude, the position is rising too fast, the valuation is too high and the fundamentals are not yet available, Alpha growth stocks themselves also have some catalytic factors.

(1) performance must not be falsified: some

The annual report and a quarterly forecast are expected and high handed, leading to performance growth stocks, as well as big new industries such as Internet finance.

(2) policy driven: at the beginning of the year, the issuance of financial software localization policies, credit reporting and other equity issuance methods were announced, which constituted the catalyst for the TMT sector.

(3) the weakening of stock supply pressure: the revision of the securities law is later than expected, leading to the delay in the launch of the registration system.

Overall, the performance of white horse growth stocks exceeded expectations and policy catalytic drivers and other factors or extended to the two sessions before, and it is likely that the expected economic rebound of the market will not be confirmed until the two quarter. In the short term, the active stock market is expected to continue until the Spring Festival and even the two sessions.

The main concern is the regulatory level.

The attitude of rhythm and the super expectation of monetary policy.

Yes

May I ask, what is the growth of white horse? What does Alpha mean? The judgement of style actually stems from the perception and judgement of the total volume and structure of liquidity, the nature of marginal capital and the current relative valuation level.

The so-called white horse growth or Alpha is to remind you of the idea of temporarily abandoning the top-down BETA market before turning to the bottom-up train of thought: pay close attention to those low valuation industries (which need to see the valuation of the industry sector), the performance growth rate is no problem, PEG relatively reasonable stock, if it involves some recent relatively fire theme concept, the valuation elasticity will be relatively large.

And last week, Alibaba's lower than expected stock price slump also reminded us that we need to be more cautious about the lack of performance support, pure concept driven high risk preferences.

For investors who like cyclical stocks and want to get Alpha income, they can also find opportunities in chemical industry varieties, such as marked price increase or stable price, but with obvious downward costs.