Why Does Cotton Price Go To The End?

People have been asking me, "what do you think of the market after the Spring Festival? How can we operate?"

Why? In the first year of the cotton subsidy policy, the policy has not yet been thoroughly understood, and the "arrears" of the three years' collection and storage have not been thoroughly studied.

But I can't help asking questions from my peers. Seeing the end of the year, I would like to talk about my personal opinions by wearing a helmet.

Personal understanding of the present

It's over.

There are three reasons why:

First,

Futures basically stabilized at 13000 yuan / ton line.

Yesterday (2), Zheng cotton main 1505 contract closed 13085 yuan / ton, down 65 yuan / ton.

Far month 1509 closed 13490 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton.

These days, Zheng cotton fluctuates around the range of 13000 yuan / ton, indicating that the bottom line of the industry is becoming more and more consistent.

Second, as of 2,

Cotton platform pick up price 3128 level in 13500-13600 yuan / ton line, the mainland warehouse delivery price in 14200-14300 yuan / ton, has been stabilized.

According to the Xinjiang ginning factory, the 3128 level cost is 14000 yuan / ton, that is to say, the current selling price is inverted 400-500 yuan / ton with the cost.

It is said that the factory price of 3128 cotton picking hand picked by some Xinjiang Corps is still set at 14400-14500 yuan / ton, which is 1000 yuan / ton higher than the market price, and has formed a strong support for the market.

Third, from the perspective of the operation of the mainland textile enterprises, most of the spinning profits have been negative since 2014 November.

The profits of some enterprises in Shandong and Jiangsu are over 1000 yuan / ton, and some of them are over 2000 yuan / ton.

Pressure to lower the cost of raw materials to reduce costs has been weakened.

So I think, from the current situation, there is no possibility of a big drop in cotton after the Spring Festival.

Then, will it go up? My view is that it is also difficult to "go to the sky".

The main factors are profits and profits, which are evenly matched.

Related links:

In February 2nd, the purchase price of seed cotton in Tianjin Ninghe ginning factory was 3 yuan / jin (39% of lint, 12% of moisture), and was unchanged from 1.

According to the director of a ginning factory, the daily purchase volume is about 10 thousand jin, and the acquisition of local seed cotton is basically completed by about 85%.

On the spot, 2 local cotton ginning factory 4128 grade lint factory quotes at 12700 yuan / ton (big package, gross weight, with tickets), small cotton cotton factory price quoted at 12400 yuan tons, all with 1 days.

The purchase of textile enterprises is prudent, with the main purpose of buying and selling, but not many deals.

The lint inventory of the enterprise is about 200 tons, and no turnover has been made in the near future. The cottonseed price is priced at 1.14 yuan / Jin, unchanged from 1.

Shandong Jining Jinxiang ginning factory white cotton grade four seed cotton hanging list price is 3.03-3.08 yuan / jin (lint 39-40%, moisture 8%), and 1 days.

Recent local snowfall weather, cotton enterprises purchase quantity is not big, the cotton ginning factory recently collected 2000-5000 kg of seed cotton.

Up to now, Jining seed cotton purchase completed about 70%, cotton farmers have more cotton, but because of the price is too low and maintain the purchase of a smaller number of ginning plants, appear "sell cotton difficult".

The 4128 lint price of the cotton ginning factory is priced at 12200-12300 yuan / ton (gross weight, with a ticket), which is unchanged from 1 days. The local textile enterprises only prepare a small amount of stock, and the ginning factory concluded 200 tons on the 1 th.

The cottonseed price is 1.11 yuan / Jin, unchanged from 1.

Henan Nanyang Xinye ginning factory has closed seed cotton, the current market 4127 lint factory price quoted at 12200-12500 yuan / ton (small packet, net weight, with tickets), and 1 days, 4128 level lint factory price quoted at 12700-12800 yuan / ton (big package, net weight, with tickets), and 1 days.

Nearly two days of snow and cooling weather, the market basically no deal.

The price of seed cotton to the factory in Hebei Xingtai ginning factory is 3.10 yuan / jin (38% of lint, 15% of moisture), which is equal to 1 days, and the cotton business daily purchasing amount is 1-2 Jin Jin.

Up to now, seed cotton purchase is basically over 50%, cotton farmers are still reluctant to sell.

The price of 3128 grade lint in ginning factory is 13000 yuan / ton (public weight, with ticket and self mention). At present, the stock of ginning factory is large, mostly to deliver to the factory.