Lin Caiyi: The End Of The Investment Driven Era Is Drawing To A Close.

First, the dividends of institutional reform.

First of all, through the reform of household registration system and the reform of social security management system, we will guide the allocation of labor resources in the free flow to achieve maximum efficiency.

A large number of economic research data show that the biggest resource allocation distortion in modern economy is population pfer restriction.

No matter the immigrant restriction from poor countries to rich countries, or the household registration restriction from the backward productive rural areas to the advanced productive cities, the objective is to obstruct the improvement of the allocation efficiency of labor resources.

International experts' research data show that "the productivity of immigrants has increased by about 47%."

Accordingly, we can infer that removing the barriers of household registration system and equalization of urban and rural welfare will greatly expand the scope of individual occupation choice and improve the allocation efficiency of human capital, thereby increasing the overall welfare of the whole society. At the same time, the pfer of labor force from rural areas to economically developed cities will also lead to the increase of average income level in rural areas, especially in poverty-stricken rural areas, and the decrease of labor costs in cities and towns, so as to soften the gap between the rich and the poor in society.

Secondly, through the reform of state-owned enterprises and de monopoly, the operation efficiency of pillar industries will be promoted.

According to the eighteen major economic reform measures, the reform of state-owned enterprises is going to be monopolized and "let the market be the decisive factor in the allocation of resources".

In December 2014, several opinions on further deepening the reform of electric power system (hereinafter referred to as the "new electricity reform plan") were approved by the Executive Council of the State Council in principle. In January 2015, Shenzhen was the pilot of the power pmission and distribution tariff reform.

The core content of the new electricity reform plan is to "control the two sides in the middle". Under the impetus of the technology platform of the energy Internet, we should realize the diversification of the power generation, the main body of the sale of electricity and the marketization of the electricity pricing.

The marketization reform of electric power system is an arrow.

As the year of "comprehensive deepening of reform", 2015 will also be a year of heavy energy in the field of energy reform.

Following the reform of the mixed ownership system of PetroChina in January, the oil and natural gas will quickly break the ice, and upstream gas exploration and development and the import rights of natural gas of some big enterprises are expected to be partially liberalized. The mixed ownership reform of the two major oil companies will also be deepened in Xinjiang.

In addition, under the spirit of the reform of monopoly, with the deepening of the budget reform of local governments and the return of local revenue and expenditure to public finance, under the new budget law, the municipal infrastructure such as water, nuclear power, power grids, broadband and pportation facilities will gradually adopt the PPP mode and introduce social capital. At the same time, with the pformation of government functions, the access of social capital in education, medical treatment, pension, sports and cultural facilities will soon be expected.

In addition, a series of measures such as the reform of state-owned enterprises and the reform of fiscal and taxation systems will further improve the efficiency of total factor resource allocation. Institutional reform is the most important institutional bonus for China's next round of economic growth.

As the leading force in the adjustment of the whole economic and financial structure, 2015 will be a year of great development of non silver finance.

First, the development of direct financing by government debt securitization and asset securitization has brought unprecedented opportunities for development of non banking financial institutions such as brokerages, trusts and insurance, leasing and so on.

For China's financial market, 2015 is a year of change. Securities companies may replace trust institutions as the main force of securitisation financing.

With the rapid development of multi-level capital market, the proportion of direct financing in total social financing will rise sharply.

If the economic development in the past ten years is mainly supported by credit expansion, the future development of China's real economy will rely more on direct financing of the capital market. The gem, the new three boards, the equity trading center and the stock raising platform will all become the source of capital in the era of entrepreneurship.

At the same time, credit enhancement and debt securitization of government debt and asset securitization of PPP mode will pform trust oriented financing into credit and pparency enhanced securities and credit financing, which will greatly reduce the overall financing cost of society and alleviate the impact of the market pressure of deposit interest rate.

With the increase of urbanization rate and per capita income level, the consumption level of social public goods will gradually increase.

First of all, environmental protection and improvement will become an important part of social public infrastructure. In 2015, the year of implementation of the newly revised environmental protection law is the year of ending the goal of environmental protection planning in 12th Five-Year.

Along with the "air pollution prevention and control action plan" to further promote and implement, "water pollution prevention action plan" and "soil pollution prevention and control action plan" promulgated, the government will invest 6 trillion yuan in air, water and soil prevention and control. The environmental protection industry will be an important economic growth point in 2015.

Secondly, the trial and promotion of PPP mode has opened up a new channel for the funding of infrastructure.

Urban infrastructure construction is no longer subject to government financial constraints.

In addition, the popularity of network communication and network applications will promote the construction of public networks and intelligent terminals. The smart city in the cloud era will be a hot investment point for national public facilities.

With the adjustment of the government's fiscal expenditure structure, the development and upgrading of public services such as health care, education and culture will become the guarantee of the quality and quantity of public goods in 2015.

Since 2015, the change of population structure has led to the decline of real estate consumption demand, and the promotion of quality life into the era of consumer real estate. The main resources of the society will mainly be used to produce high-end durable consumer goods and intelligent products, and electric vehicles and smart home will become the focus of consumption.

With the growth of automobile and home intelligence, there is also the after sale service market.

In the post real estate era, the popularity of automobile and household appliances is improving and the functions are abundant. The corresponding after-sales service needs will also be strengthened with the upgrading of electrical appliances. The innovation of automobile and intelligent terminal products will lead to the upgrading of the entire manufacturing industry.

With the development of urbanization and industrialization, the growth of the quantity of most consumer goods is gradually replaced by the demand for quality (higher and middle income level). Intellectualization, branding and entertainment become the trend of consumption. This brings rapid development opportunities to the three industry, such as commerce, service industry, and especially the productive service industry.

According to experts estimates, by 2020, the scale of science and technology service industry will reach 8 trillion yuan, and in 2025, the output value of sports consumption in China will reach 5 trillion yuan.

At the same time, medicine, tourism, media, logistics, insurance, health care products and other industries will benefit from the upgrading of consumption and enter a period of rapid development.

Only one rapid development of tourism can lead to the prosperity of the 110 industries.

In addition, the strategy of "going all the way" will bring new international demand to high-speed rail, electromechanical industry and so on. The trade mode based on labor cost advantage will gradually upgrade to an export-oriented economy of "big power".