Gold Rock: A Shares Have At Least Two Years Of Brilliant Growth

It is foreseeable that in 2015, the macro-economy will continue to slide, and the trend of economic downturn will turn into a bottoming up expectation in bull market sentiment, instead, it will become one of the driving forces for the stock market to rise.

Like a number of bull markets in the past, a series of policies for economic reform have created reform expectations, and a loose monetary environment has driven capital into the stock market. Optimistic market sentiment is like fuel to the flames. The only incompatible economic trend indicates a fundamental improvement in the future.

In times of danger, what are the possible factors that will reverse the bull market in China in the next two or three years?

Discussion in a recent forum

Liu Jipeng and I believe that the 2015 year old stock market will see 4000 points in Shanghai stock market, which is immediately isolated by several "ten thousand point" optimists.

Looking back to the forum that used to be on the same theme, one of the mainstream views at the end of 2007 is that Shanghai stock index is not a dream. Then I am the only one who apologizes to shareholders for the "8000 points of Shanghai stock index". I usually choose the latter between condemnation and honesty.

The trend of China's stock market from Shanghai Stock Index 1600 points to Shanghai Stock Index 8000 points seemed to be irresistible. Why did it suddenly reverse the "three thousand feet" of the flight at the 6124 point of the Shanghai stock index? The answer lies in the international environment -- the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States triggered a financial tsunami sweeping the world.

From this perspective, what will be the international environment of the bull market?

In early 2014, if anyone had the courage to short Russia's rouble, the gains in 1 years could be as high as several hundred times. This is the first crisis - the Putin crisis.

By the end of 2014, if anyone can bet on the appreciation of the Swiss franc, the gains in 3 months can be as high as several hundred times. This is the second crisis.

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In the same year, Japan's "Andouble economics" failed to get a good result. Mr. Soros gamble gambling on the depreciation of the Japanese yen and made a profit of 1 billion dollars, which is the third secret worry. The second Asian economic crisis may happen again.

In my many years of experience, when the foreign exchange market came out to gain huge profits, the shadow of the crisis lingered around the market.

The results may dissipate within a few years, but most of them will be verified by subsequent crises.

Because the foreign exchange market is a sprint, speculative profits often come from the crisis before and after the "knife lick blood" extraordinary courage.

The Putin crisis, the euro crisis,

In my view, the most likely to spread to China in the next two or three years is the Asian economic crisis, which will lead to the Japanese debt crisis.

Once the crisis breaks out, China's stock market and economy will be affected, but the geopolitics of the country will benefit from it.

Russia's economic links with the world are mainly two main arteries: oil and rouble.

In addition, there are some capillaries, and the international correlation is very small. For example, what we can see in the market seems to be "Russian Dolls", most of which are made in China.

The main stream of European culture originated from looting other countries. Now the world has levelled off, Europeans have lost their way, and they make a fuss when they are in trouble.

The sound of the euro crisis is overblown in this irresponsible attitude, which may not be very serious.

The inherent tenacity of Asian culture stems from Chinese culture: one does not admit that it is wrong, two does not admit defeat, and when it comes to a last resort, it will never speak lightly of crisis.

The main logic of Andouble economics is to stimulate the real economy with higher debt. If the real economy recovers under strong stimulus, the crisis may be postponed.

But contrary to expectations, the Japanese economy has not improved significantly in the past two years, and Japan is now in debt.

As we all know, Japan's local economy has almost lost its creativity and high consumption, and increasingly relies on overseas assets and its remittance income. The Japanese business elite have already emigrated overseas and sought investment opportunities in other countries, such as Sun Zhengyi investing in Alibaba.

It is bold to speculate that the second Asian economic crisis will come in 2017, and that China's stock market will have at least two years of brilliant growth.