The Fed'S Resolution Or "Pain" Approved A Strong Dollar.

The US Federal Reserve will end its two day interest rate meeting on Wednesday afternoon in Beijing on Wednesday morning.

This is this week.

One of the most important issues is that the interest rate conference will more or less prompt the Fed's willingness to raise interest rates.

In the context of the global economic performance is not satisfactory, the Fed's policy orientation is particularly attracting attention.

Because some central bank easing policies such as the ECB and the Bank of Canada are more than expected, they may also affect the Fed's willingness to raise interest rates, so this meeting is an important window for the market to observe the Fed's intentions.

On the eve of the Fed's first interest rate decision in 2015, Tuesday's speculation that the market might be more moderate to the Fed's resolution made the US dollar eager to make profits ahead of schedule, while the weakness of us durable goods orders data became a "catalyst" for the market trend.

Although the market has some suspicions about the tendency of the Federal Reserve to tighten policy in the future due to the wide size of the European Central Bank, because the global monetary environment is becoming increasingly loose and the US economy is improving, the mainstream view still believes that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the year, but it will only push the time to the end of the year.

In the environment of global deflation risk, the recent strong dollar may be fed up with the Fed's "discontent".

Since January, the Swiss central bank has cut interest rates unexpectedly. The European Central Bank's quantitative easing (QE) has exceeded expectations, and the actions of central banks in major countries and regions are becoming more and more difficult to consider.

If the Fed continues to adhere to the established "exit" attitude, it will be easy to say; if the situation changes or adjusts the exit plan, it will shake the whole world.

In fact, a new round of global monetary easing has begun.

In January, 12 central banks in the world adopted interest rate reduction measures, the European Central Bank launched comprehensive quantitative easing, and the BoJ maintained its original quantitative easing scale.

Brazil, Russia, New Zealand and other three countries are still in the interest rate cycle due to inflation and currency depreciation.

The United States has benefited from a good economic recovery and is ready to enter the cycle of interest rate hike.

Cheng Xiaoyong, assistant director of Baocheng futures financial research institute, said that the euro and other currencies have depreciated against the US dollar recently. The US Markit manufacturing PMI initial performance in January is not good enough. In addition to the European version QE, the Fed's attitude towards raising interest rates will be more cautious.

But there is not enough evidence and reason for the Federal Reserve to postpone raising interest rates or even change the plan. The market generally expected the fed to raise interest rates in the two quarter.

Therefore, on Thursday, the Fed's Conference on interest rates may only adjust some wording and delete the words "patience".

Although the performance of the US economy has been better and the unemployment rate has continued to decline, the inflation index is still lower than expected, and has not yet reached the target value of the Fed's rate hike.

If the future of the global economic outlook is dim and deflation is not dispersed, the US dollar will continue to appreciate, which will affect US exports. The Fed may use innovative tools to increase short-term liquidity adjustment so as to avoid the infection of the United States.

Some international financial institutions believe that the Fed's "raise interest rates" may change.

A report issued by the Bank of Paris in France said that if the Federal Reserve meeting had a hint of "all the inflation is extremely low and more worried", the Fed might be inclined to monetary easing.

Goldman Sachs reported that the outlook for inflation in the US has not been good enough. Its previous inflation expectations did not appear. The Fed's interest rate hike in June has dropped.

Bloomberg economist Carl Riccadonna wrote that the Fed will definitely retain "patience"; the policy statement may be better for assessing the economic situation.

At the same time, Fed officials are likely to stress that the labour market is improving or not ending, and emphasizes that the inflation factor extends beyond the fall in energy prices.

Moreover, policymakers are unlikely to express deeper doubts about low inflation, which will have a significant impact on the financial market.

The Paris bank analyst team in France said the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has no reason to suggest a change in policy after a few months after the first rate of interest rate increases.

The report points out that the next guidance change is likely to be determined at the one or two meeting before the first increase in interest rates.

Paul Ashworth, a macroeconomic analyst at Kay investment, said that the Fed would retain "patience" in its statement. The timing of the first increase might be "later than we expected."

Cumberland economist Bob Eisenbeis pointed out that the Fed should learn from the European and Swiss central bank of the "valuable lessons" and should first decide the interest rate line and then consider how to describe its own route to the market.

FTN analyst Chris Low, the Fed is likely to insist on "patience" unless it decides to raise interest rates by June.

In addition, the Federal Reserve will probably spend some time trying to understand the message from the market and feel distressed about the European situation. At the next meeting, the Federal Reserve will debate the impact of oil price on inflation.

Investec analyst Philip Shaw, Victoria Clarke and Ryan Djajasaputra said the FOMC statement could reduce the US's expectation of raising interest rates in 2015.

If the Fed believes that more information about the impact of falling oil prices is needed, then the FOMC statement may imply that the Fed will wait longer to raise interest rates or slow down for a longer period after the first increase in interest rates.

The Societe Generale Bank researchers wrote in the report that there is no prospect of any change in the statement; the Fed may adjust its statement to reflect the growth of most of the time last year or the continued downward trend of "market based inflation indicators".

The decision of the fed to raise interest rates depends largely on the major market conditions in the year and the inflation outlook.

Eric Green, an economist at Dow Ming securities, wrote in the report that assuming that in the second half of 2015, growth tends to 2.5-3% and inflation tends to go higher, the possibility of raising interest rates in September will be greater.

The gap between the Fed's rate hike and market expectations is widening.