RMB Depreciation: Hai Tao Wants To Move To Europe

"Cheap hands and slow hands" are a vivid reflection of consumer sentiment. According to reporters, the magnitude and way of devaluation will have a huge impact on domestic and foreign capital markets and foreign exchange pactions.

Analysts say that in the long run, the depreciation of the renminbi is a bad thing for the stock market.

RMB against the U.S. dollar nearly 8 months low

The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar continued to depreciate. Yesterday, the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center announced that the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.1384, which was 42 basis points lower than the previous release date (6.1342) in January 23rd, and depreciated for two consecutive trading days, and a new low of two months.

From the understanding, since the European Central Bank launched the new version of quantitative easing (QE) policy, the RMB exchange rate depreciation pressure further increased, the two trading day plummeted by about 450 basis points, equivalent to last month's month decline (down 590 basis points) of 75%.

Yesterday, in the inter-bank foreign exchange market, the RMB dollar spot exchange rate opened at 6.2423, the intraday exchange rate continued to decline, and fell to a new low of 6.2569 in the day, the depreciation rate reached 281 basis points, a nearly eight month low, and 43 from the 2% limit down 6.2612.

According to the central bank's regulation, since March 17, 2014, the floating rate of RMB to us dollar exchange rate in interbank spot foreign exchange market has expanded from 1% to 2%.

Over the past year, despite the rise and fall of the renminbi, the daily volatility has never been so close to the limit.

For the devaluation of RMB, insiders say that most currencies in the world are not following the US dollar, and even the euro and yen have gone against the trend. At this time, if the RMB continues to appreciate against the US dollar, it is equivalent to "double appreciation" for most currencies. This divergence will bring serious blow to the manufacturing industry and even cause unemployment.

RMB devaluation, different groups react differently.

A RMB exchange rate declined against the US dollar

Last Friday, Ms Lu saw that the official website of Juicy Couture was on sale, and saw a dress worth 500 yuan. For the sake of high freight rates, the United States did not waste the freight, and bought a pair of earrings and bracelets. The final goods were 851 yuan, 194 yuan in taxes and 144 yuan in shipping costs, and the total cost of credit cards was 1188 yuan.

Ms. Lu checked out more than 8 o'clock that night. At that time, the people's Bank of China changed the US dollar to 6.1342 yuan. She calculated that the total consumption was 194 dollars. According to the 6.2569 new low exchange rate yesterday, it was 1212 yuan, which means that if yesterday's order was made, it would cost nearly 24 yuan.

MS Lu said that with the appreciation of the US dollar, the purchasing power of the renminbi has declined, and the US sea is going to cool down. The former is very concerned about the US Amazon. After that, we should pay more attention to the Amazon in Britain and Germany, and the same things may be more favourable in Europe, and also the Lotte official website in Korea.

B's guy who worked in the us suddenly found a pay rise.

After graduating from college, Mr. Shaw went to the United States to graduate school. After graduating in 2013, he entered an American bilingual discount website in Nanjing, earning an annual income of more than 40 thousand dollars.

Soon after the new year, he learned that the dollar appreciation news, he was happy, "feel the money to return to the flower more valuable, the original conversion into RMB annual income is 245 thousand yuan, on Monday when the fall of 'up' to 250 thousand yuan, more than 5 thousand yuan, can solve the Spring Festival back to a part of the red money."

In the upsurge of studying in the United States, the MBA profession in the US is a "golden treasure" for business majors. It is very popular among Chinese students, but overnight, the cost of Chinese parents has increased dramatically.

At present, the average MBA time in the United States is two years. The tuition fee is 10 thousand ~3 million, plus the cost of living and so on. The cost of reading the whole course is roughly 50 thousand to 300 thousand dollars.

300 thousand dollars last Friday equivalent to 1 million 840 thousand yuan, but according to yesterday's exchange rate is 1 million 880 thousand, to spend more than 40 thousand yuan.

C exporters are ready to seize the opportunity to sign up as soon as possible to increase revenue by settlement.

The exchange rate fluctuations of several percentage points may not have much impact on ordinary consumers, but for an export enterprise with an order of millions of dollars, the change of exchange rate directly affects the profits of enterprises.

The head of an import and export company in Jiangning, Nanjing, told reporters that most of the company's orders were settled in US dollars. During the period when the appreciation of RMB was more severe, the company adopted the method of expected settlement of foreign exchange.

In a simple example, the company signed a $1 million bill with a foreign seller. In the past few months, 6.1 of the profits were locked in advance. At that time, the yield was 6 million 100 thousand yuan. However, as the RMB depreciated, it could reach up to 6 million 250 thousand yuan according to yesterday's spot exchange rate, which is equivalent to earning less than 140 thousand yuan.

The official said that the recent devaluation of the renminbi is good news for the company. The company will seize the opportunity of devaluation, make more orders and take the form of immediate settlement, and seize the opportunity of exchange rate, and increase profits in this way.

"In the long run, if the renminbi has been depreciating, then

It is a good thing that goods have the advantage of price. "

D if RMB continues to depreciate, overseas credit card will be overpaid.

The head of an overseas travel agency in Nanjing said that if the RMB keeps declining, the price of outbound travel will definitely continue to rise, especially to the United States.

"At present, the impact of RMB depreciation on the price of outbound travel can be ignored. The current travel agency has not adjusted the price of travel, but the invisible cost has increased."

The other side said that outbound travel and shopping is an important part. The depreciation of the renminbi will cost more money than it did a few months ago in the purchase of watches, handbags, cosmetics, etc.

"People who travel abroad feel that the appreciation of the renminbi means spending the same amount of money on traveling abroad, staying at better hotels, eating better meals, and buying better things," he said. "Depreciation means a little worse."

"If the RMB continues to depreciate, it is best to cash in cash before going abroad," said Ms. Huang, a travel expert.

For those who use credit card consumption, if the RMB appreciates, the delay in repayment can be reduced.

But if the yuan continues to depreciate, it will be too much to lose credit cards.

Impact on A share

Bad money, good property

What is the strong impact of the short-term devaluation of the renminbi and what kind of impact it will have on the A share market? Market participants say that the short-term devaluation has little effect, but the A share market may be under pressure if it continues to depreciate significantly.

Overseas experience shows that every round of local currencies in emerging markets

Both are accompanied by capital outflows and stock market pullbacks.

A market personage introduces that the industry and plate that are specific to the bad may be the most deeply affected by the financial and real estate industry.

And the depreciation of the RMB will also increase the A share industry.

The export oriented industries will benefit from textile and clothing, toys, shoes and hats, household appliances, and so on. Correspondingly, the export of machinery and household appliances will increase, which will enhance the demand for upstream steel market.

But some analysts believe that the recent devaluation of the renminbi, the impact on A shares is not obvious.

"Last year, the yuan also saw a sustained depreciation of three months, but then the renminbi continued to appreciate, which is relatively balanced throughout the year."

Ma Quansheng, a strategy researcher at Wells Fargo, told reporters that at present, the short term depreciation is the market behavior. The central parity of the renminbi has not depreciated in a large scale. The people's Bank of China will not allow the central parity of RMB to depreciate in a trend. "There is no need to overlook the RMB and there is no need to empty the A share market."