Why Not Buy The Stock Market?

Experts said that the impact of "reduction" will take some time to show. Despite the recent negative factors in the stock market, the foundation of the bull market brought about by the reform has not changed.

The central bank's "reduction" is not a catalyst for the market.

In the central bank's "drop in" good news to stimulate, in February 5th, Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities are a big open pattern, but then quickly fell back to the 6 day again downward adjustment, after diving low opened and fell below the 5 day moving average.

By the end of the closing period, the Shanghai composite index had broken 3100 point integer numbers, closing at 3076.64 points, or 1.91%, and the Shenzhen composite index at 10791.10 points, or 2.48%.

The turnover of all major sectors of the market has been adjusted.

And smaller plates have larger shrinkage.

The performance of the stock market has attracted the attention of all parties.

The prevailing attitude in the market is that it will be attributed to the impact of the 24 new shares, such as the intensive purchase of new shares and the launch of options trading next Monday.

Shen Wan Hongyuan Securities pointed out that taking into account the recent market turbulence adjustment, investor sentiment has become cautious and economic fundamentals worry about the rise, and in February there are bulk new shares, options listing and Spring Festival holiday and other disturbance factors, so short-term stock index material will be adjusted to homeopathy, the shock intensified.

The Shanghai composite index is expected to fluctuate from 3050 to 3350 in February.

For the reason why the market does not buy the central bank's "accounts", the expert analysis, on the one hand, the "reduction" has long been in the market expectations, and the incremental benefits brought about by the market are very limited. Instead, it adds new uncertainties to further regulation and operation, and confirms the trend of capital outflow. On the other hand, the market logic reflected by "drop in precision" has not changed.

He Vinda, director of the Department of economics and trade, School of management, University of Science and Technology Beijing, said in an interview with our reporter that the effect of "lowering the accuracy" on the stock market needs a period of time.

"First of all, from a large perspective, this bull market can not always be straight ahead, so the shock adjustment itself is normal.

Secondly, in response to the issue of liquidity release, the market's "anti course" performance is due to some structural adjustment needs within the market.

He Weida said.

He Weida believes that the recent negative factors on the "reduction" offset effect still can not be ignored.

In recent years, especially in margin trading, it has criticized several brokerages, which may lead to the existence of shipping behavior of securities dealers. These penalties will surely bring certain market "strike".

In addition, at the end of the year, the dividends of listed companies are gradually disclosed, and the performance of each company is gradually disclosed. At this time, investors' "bottom picking" or "pressing adjustment" may be laying the groundwork for doing more after the year.

Gao Shanwen, chief economist of Anxin securities, said that the "reduction" is generally in the market expectation, which may change the path of market adjustment, but it will not change the big pattern that the market is still in a state of adjustment.

The probability of pre concussion city is large.

In many institutions, this "reduction" is at least a limited role in the A share market.

In the context of weak demand, the real economy has yet to recover and the financial cost of large and medium sized enterprises in financial markets is still divided, whether the A share market can be launched depends on the follow-up policy.

He Weida said that while reducing the shortfall in capital, the "drop in precision" will also bring about a period of structural adjustment. The market differentiation may also intensify. Before the Spring Festival, there will probably be shock adjustment.

The bull market is unlikely to end in half a year, so there will still be market opportunities after the year, but the market performance is bound to be tortuous and will not rise in a straight line.

Although the positive effect of the "reduction" is hedged by short-term negative factors, the general view of the organization is that the trend of loose funds will not change at all.

Guotai Junan Securities Analysis believes that the "reduction" may show that the next credit and fiscal policy is further positive, and push up market risk preferences.

The market trend needs to wait for the real stability of the fundamentals or a clearer policy of continuous relaxation, which is the fastest in the middle and late two quarter, or at the beginning of the three quarter.

At present, investors can take advantage of the opportunity to control positions and structures, pay more attention to reform related themes and investment opportunities, and make appropriate structural adjustments to meet the market trend of accelerated differentiation.