Double Impact Of Oil Price And Cotton Price Deserves Attention

The investment boom of the chemical fiber industry has gradually subsided, and some projects have been postponed or cancelled. Some of the projects have been completed, but no capacity has been released according to market conditions.

Preliminary statistics show that the new production capacity of polyester is 3 million 480 thousand tons, accounting for only half of the planned initial production.

2015 plan

Most of the projects were postponed from 2014, and the total production capacity of polyester is about 3 million 400 thousand tons. According to the actual situation, it is estimated that only about 50% of the capacity can be practically reached.

The profit of chemical fiber industry recovered in the 2 quarter, and the profit in August decreased significantly.

Although the price of products continued to decline in 9~12 months, the price of raw materials was also decreasing, and the space of price differentials of some products was magnified, so profits increased.

1~11 month, chemical fiber industry sales profit margin of 3.85%, an increase of 0.27 percentage points over the same period.

In the past year, one of the factors that affected the operation of the chemical fiber industry is the sharp drop in crude oil prices.

Globally, crude oil supply exceeds demand and prices fell sharply. By the end of 2014, WTI oil prices fell to 55 US dollars / barrel, compared with the June high.

Synthetic fiber materials cost no support, and prices have dropped sharply.

This directly affects the subsequent trend of related chemical fiber varieties.

In addition,

After the change, the gap between staple fiber and cotton prices is narrowed.

Affected by the adjustment of domestic cotton policy, domestic cotton prices have dropped sharply, and the price difference between polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber has been shrinking, forming a certain price comparative advantage, which will have a certain impact on the market consumption of chemical fiber staple.

But when cotton prices are released, the overall competitiveness of China's textile industry will be greatly improved. The chemical fiber industry will also benefit from the overall progress of the textile industry.

In addition, last year,

Mergers and acquisitions have made progress.

Relying on market regulation and industry guidance, capital market has witnessed asset flow and reorganization in the same industry, and the merger and reorganization of chemical fiber industry has made progress.

According to incomplete statistics, 3 listed companies have withdrawn from the chemical fiber business.

For example, Huarun Jinhua was changed to SKYWORTH figure in November 11th last year, pferring its 72% Yantai nylon shares to Huarun textile.

In 2015, the global economy will continue to maintain a weak recovery trend. China's economy will maintain steady growth at medium and high speed, and will create a stable operation of the macro environment for the chemical fiber industry.

The steady growth of the textile industry is expected to improve the demand for chemical fiber.

The price of chemical fiber may rebound as international oil prices may be suppressed before, but the situation of PTA surplus is difficult to change. It is still necessary to rely on the reduction of output to stabilize the market. With the pressure of polyester polyester production capacity increasing, it is expected that the rebound of polyester products will not be strong enough.

The overall operation of the chemical fiber industry may be slightly better than in 2014.

In 2015, the chemical fiber industry estimated output of 46 million tons, an increase of about 5% compared to the same period last year, and the total profit increased over the previous year, and the quality of operation improved.

This year, the key task of the chemical fiber industry is to dissolve the pressure of production capacity, optimize the stock, control the increment and expand the application.

In addition, the industry should vigorously promote advanced technologies for energy saving and emission reduction, seize opportunities for development, accelerate mergers and acquisitions, and accelerate backward production capacity.