2015 Economic Indicators: Stable Growth And Adequate Ammunition

This year's series of economic development goals are accompanied by the announcement of the government work report.

No surprise, the GDP growth target set by the State Council in 2015 is around 7%, and the CPI target is around 3%.

Li Keqiang, premier of the State Council, explained in his report that the establishment of this economic growth goal is in line with the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way, and is compatible with the requirements of the expansion of the total economic volume and the upgrading of the structure. This is in line with the law of development and is consistent with the objective reality.

Yesterday (March 5th), after the prime minister made a report on the work of the government, the discussions around the 7% sessions of the two sessions have been carried out.

Du Ying, deputy chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese people's Political Consultative Conference and the former national development and Reform Commission, told the daily economic news reporter that this is a relatively appropriate speed.

Jia Kang, former chairman of the CPPCC National Committee and the Finance Ministry of the Ministry of finance, said that economic growth was set at about 7% this year. The pressure on local governments and enterprises is relatively large. "Do not attach too much importance to the performance of the indicators of economic growth. We should also see the changes in the structure of GDP growth, the quality of employment and growth, as well as the relevant environmental indicators and the protection of the basic livelihood of the people."

Zhang Xiaoji, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese people's Political Consultative Conference and a researcher from the Ministry of Foreign Economic Research of the State Council Development Research Center, told reporters that China's GDP target last year was about 7.5%, and the actual completion of 7.4% was at a reasonable level, but we also saw considerable difficulty in the completion process.

Under the current economic restructuring and reform environment, the growth rate down to around 7% can reduce the pressure of steady growth. "Lowering the growth rate of GDP at the national level has also conveyed a gesture to local governments, encouraging and urging local governments to shift their focus to reform and structural adjustment as soon as possible."

In addition to GDP, the annual CPI target is around 3%, 0.5 percentage points lower than last year. According to recent data, China's monthly CPI growth rate is still less than 1%.

A member of the CPPCC who did not want to be named said he expects the CPI target to be more than 2% this year.

However, more attention should be paid to price reform and price reform.

Adjust the space reserved.

In addition, the growth rate of imports and exports was set at 6%. Zhang Xiaoji believes that the setting of this figure reflects our positive attitude.

Our country has made great efforts in opening up this year, pushing the "one belt and one way" strategy and strengthening the support for "going global".

But at the same time, he said that from the perspective of exports, the current global economic downturn and the total volume of Global trade have stagnant. The developed countries also have complicated monetary policy differentiation, and the real effective exchange rate of RMB is still high, so the completion of this goal is also difficult.

In terms of foreign trade export, the government's work report proposes to promote the pformation and upgrading of foreign trade and improve the export tax rebate burden mechanism. The increment is partially borne by the central government, giving local and enterprises a "reassurance".

Clean up and standardize import and export link fees, establish and publicize the list of charges.

In Zhang Xiaoji's view, this is the embodiment of the implementation of the proactive fiscal policy. "If we follow the original policy, there is no enthusiasm for the local government. After the export tax rebate is undertaken by the local government, it will not contribute much to the local finance and employment, and the enforcement will not be enough. The central government will take the initiative now, and the enthusiasm of the local government and enterprises will also be mobilized."

For example, at present, cross-border electricity providers have become a new growth point to help China's economic restructuring. Suning launched its "offshore outsourcing" service since 2013, providing users with overseas consumer services including pre purchase consultation, payment guarantee pactions, logistics tracking, domestic returns and after-sales service.

In addition, monetary policy has tighten up more appropriately. The prime minister has said that the broad money M2 is expected to grow by about 12%. In actual implementation, it can also be slightly higher according to the needs of economic development.

Bai Hexiang, chairman of the CPPCC National Committee and director of Chongqing business management department of the people's Bank of China, said that the goal setting of M2 is generally the sum of GDP growth and CPI growth, leaving some room for improvement. "Moreover, the government work report also said that it could be slightly higher. It should be aimed at dealing with uncertainties in the economic downturn, and in a certain period, it can support economic development through monetary policy regulation."