The Most Spectacular Wave Of Bull Market

After a long period of research, it is considered that this is a bull market with gem as the core, and the gem index will continue to hit a new high, but for the motherboard, it is a difficult trend to judge. As for how high the gem index can be, we think that the gem index's height may exceed the imagination of the vast majority of people in the market, at least 10000 points, and now it's more than 1800. There is no doubt that we do not simply take the picture that the index will reach 10000 points. The following three logic supports this conclusion:

1, the market value of stocks is highly correlated with GDP, often about two times that of GDP. Compared with the stock market of China and the United States, we believe that by 2023, the market value of China's stock market will increase by at least 6 times, and the gem index can reach more than 10000.

Up to now, the US stock market value is US $32 trillion, and China is currently US $6 trillion, with a gap of more than 5 times. In 2014, China's GDP exceeded 10 trillion and 300 billion dollars, and the United States was 17 trillion and 600 billion dollars. 8 years later, in 2023, we expect that China's GDP will be basically equal to that of the United States, reaching more than US $20 trillion, which may be slightly smaller than that of the United States. Because the stock market will reflect China's GDP ahead of us expectations in advance, it is very likely that the stock market value of the two countries will be basically the same. If the United States considers a 40% rise in 8 years, the US stock market will exceed US $45 trillion. That is to say, by 2023, the market value of China's stock will exceed US $45 trillion, which is more than 7 times the market value of China's stock market today, and its market value growth will be about 6 times. Now the gem index is 1800 points, excluding 8 years after the index exceeds 10000 points (considering the distortion of the Shanghai Composite Index).

The main reason for this is the gem index as the benchmark. Shanghai Composite Index There are too many traditional industries. In the next 8 years, it is not the direction of industrial development. The probability of distortion is very large. In fact, it may be more convincing to take stock market value as a measure of the performance of the stock market in the next 8 years.

2, in the past, the Chinese government did not take the stock market as the core engine to promote economic development, plus the past 10 years, "the state entered the private sector". As a result, the Shanghai stock index, which dominated the traditional industries, did not rise in 10 years. But now the government is paying attention to the role of the stock market in promoting economic development. Under the premise of paying equal attention to the stock market, the stock market can reflect the reality of GDP growth. In fact, the overall price earnings ratio of China's stock market (excluding GEM) is still not high, even far below that of the United States. If we can achieve the current US price earnings ratio, the overall market value of stocks will increase by more than 40%.

Many people may think that there is a serious bubble in the gem at present. There is no doubt that a high price earnings ratio can be observed in a single company. But if we regard the whole growth enterprise market as a whole of a new economy, you will find that only the market value of more than 2 billion yuan, that is, the market value of an industrial and commercial bank and a construction bank, can it represent the market value of the new economy in the future of China as a whole? Only 2 trillion yuan!

The gem can reduce its valuation in two ways in the future. One aspect is mergers and acquisitions, which constantly buy and purchase at a much lower price than the stock market. No doubt, it can lower the valuation quickly. The typical case is the blue cursor; on the other hand, it is the substantial growth of its performance. After all, the gem represents new things, and it can not be compared with the existing blue chips in the short term. But there is also a large number of unprofitable high value companies in the US Nasdaq, such as Tesla, Jingdong mall and so on.

3, the process of China's economic transformation is the process of replacing the traditional economy with the new economy. Listed company In terms of the traditional industry, it is the process of transferring profits to the emerging industries, but the profit model of the emerging industries is better, the profit quality is higher, and the price earnings ratio of the emerging industry companies is higher. That is to say, even if the profits of the entire stock market did not increase, as long as profits were transferred to emerging industries, they would continue to push up the gem index.

In reality, we have seen this process: Broker Represented by direct financing instead of indirect financing represented by banks, the profits of brokerages have increased substantially. Traditional department stores have been replaced by electricity providers instead of electricity providers. The income and profits of business operators have increased substantially. Traditional paper media and print media have been replaced by mobile Internet, and the profits of Internet media have been greatly improved. New energy such as solar energy has continuously replaced old fossil fuels, and the profits of solar enterprises have increased substantially, while the profits of traditional energy enterprises such as coal and oil have declined.