Policy Adjustment Is The Focus Of Attention In The Post Market Period
In order to improve the supply and demand pattern of the domestic cotton market and maintain the smooth operation of cotton prices, the five ministries and commissions of the Xinjiang development and Reform Commission and the finance department jointly issued the notice on conscientiously doing the work of reducing the planting area in Xinjiang recently (hereinafter referred to as the notice). The notice reduced the cotton production forecast in the new year to a certain extent, and made clear the objectives of the new year. Direct subsidy price It will guide cotton farmers to see the cotton market situation less than last year, reduce cotton planting and transform other crops. From this point of view, the decline in planting area of Xinjiang cotton in 2015 may be inevitable.
In addition, due to the mainland this year cotton Loss of storage and support, sales prices fell sharply compared with last year, cotton growers enthusiasm has significantly decreased, data are expected to be more than 1/3 of cotton planting area in the mainland. Direct subsidy policy The support will directly affect cotton growers' planting intention and new cotton output. At present, the market generally believes that there are more than 10 million tons of cotton in the national reservoir, which may be more than a year and a half of cotton consumption in the country. Therefore, whether the market is stored after March is also the focus of the market.
The author thinks that the selling of cotton reserves needs to meet the situation that domestic cotton is in short supply. Therefore, we should look at the progress of domestic cotton consumption if we throw or not throw it. The shortage of supply will inevitably cause cotton prices to rise. If we maintain the current weak pattern, reserve cotton should wait quietly, but if there is an accident, it will be another matter.
To sum up, at present, cotton purchasing is not active, and downstream consumption warming is still to be observed. As the supply surplus situation still exists, cotton prices do not have room for substantial growth. Similarly, due to the domestic cotton cost support and continuous consumption, the cotton price of Xinjiang cotton has maintained a general trend of oscillation in the case of no reduction in cotton prices and no significant decline in cotton prices in the mainland.
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