Ji Lu Yu: Yarn Market Enters "Slow Hot" State

This week's yarn market is more active than before, but it still does not show the scene in the peak season of previous years.

The sale of cotton yarn is still warm and stable. The price of individual cotton yarn is expected to decrease slightly. The price of polyester cotton yarn decreases with the price of polyester staple material, and the downstream yarn purchasing enterprises have the intention of reducing the yarn price. At present, there is no adjustment yet, and the shipment is relatively active.

The yarn market has been in such a downturn after 1 years. The main reasons for personal analysis are as follows:

Most of the plants are sold on a fixed basis and stocked on demand.

Less than a year ago, and at present, the sales price of grey fabric has been increasing, and the sales volume has been reduced by the size of the shipment, and the status of maintaining production has become normal. 2, the imports of low and medium imported yarn produced by India, Pakistan and Vietnam have hit the domestic market in large numbers, and the quotations are 500-800 yuan / ton difference from the domestic market.

3. The overall sales situation is not good. Most enterprises have difficulty in capital turnover.

More money to be shipped to the form of shipment, buyers are willing to have account period procurement, which has a certain impact on volume.

Because of the above reasons, the market will not be able to enter the peak season this year. This slow trend is expected to continue for some time.

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Since late March, the price of Xinjiang long staple cotton has increased by 100-200 yuan / ton again. The 137, 237 and 336 grades of long staple cotton Awati's wool reclaim price is 27400-27500 yuan / ton, 26400-26500 yuan / ton, 25500-25700 yuan / ton respectively, and all the long staple cotton ginning plants and cotton enterprises are generally reluctant to sell. Some manufacturers do not offer foreign quotes.

It is understood that there are few cotton ginning plants that store 1000-2000 tons of long staple cotton around Awati, and there are few cotton shops with storage capacity of more than 4000 tons.

On the one hand, since the Chinese government issued only 894 thousand tons of 1% import tariff quotas for cotton in 2015, spinning enterprises need to weigh the use between fine cotton and long staple cotton. The international cotton traders and Chinese importers all coincidentally reduce the PIMA cotton consignment volume. The US SJV PIMA shipments have been greatly affected by the general strike of the workers on the West Coast ports of the United States. The 1 and February contracts for arriving in Hong Kong were postponed.

On the other hand, the production of domestic long staple cotton in 2014/15 is affected by the decline of planting area and bad weather. The yield per unit area has declined considerably compared with 2012 and 2013, and the industry is expected to be less than 50 thousand tons. According to USDA's calculation, China's annual long staple cotton consumption is over 150 thousand tons, and the gap is obvious.

In late March, the price of RMB SJV, PIMA, two, and Ji Zha 86 were concentrated at 29000-29200 yuan / ton and 28400-28600 yuan / ton, which was significantly higher than that of local enterprises in Xinjiang.

At present, there is little difference in the trend of long staple cotton, and the opinion that "not in place, not to the top and turning around early" is the main trend. Some traders buying staple cotton in the mainland in Xinjiang mainly rely on stock, not just "moving bricks and mortar bricks", but most of the cotton companies at high price are not planning.

High count yarn, high density and high density grey cloth, even though SJV PIMA cotton, Egypt JJA cotton and Israel PIMA cotton are blocked by import quotas, it is impossible to clear the sale by import quota. However, there are basically no "carry over" stocks in the cotton mill of Chen cotton or the domestic long staple cotton. However, the following factors need to be paid attention to: first, from the time point of view, there will be high-level shipments of Australian cotton in April, and arrive at the main port of China in May. The SM and GM grade will replace the Xinjiang low grade long staple cotton. At present, the SM and GM class offer price of 92-95 cents / pound in 5/6/7 month, though higher than that of the same grade cotton 10 cents / pound, but it is much lower than that of the SJV, or even PIMA. Some cotton mills in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, Shandong and other places indicated that the long staple cotton is now mainly for speculation, and the cost support is very weak. The key lies in the cotton business in 4-8.

The two is the expansion of long staple cotton planting in every cotton growing area in southern Xinjiang in 2015. The survey intention of some organizations shows that the area of long staple cotton in some cotton growing areas of Akesu is increased by more than 30%. It is foreseeable that if there is no extreme weather, the output of domestic long staple cotton will increase significantly in 2015/16, and will become a pressure on the long staple cotton market after May.

Three, since the second half of 2014, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Uzbekistan and other places, such as JC21S, JC32, JC40S yarn, and 40S, above, have significantly increased the bonded volume of vortex spinning and compact spinning. The impact of domestic 40S and 50S yarns has been increasing. Therefore, the advantages of Chinese cotton yarn have been shrunk to 50S and above, and the growth of long staple cotton consumption should not be overly optimistic.