Gui Haoming: Structural Market Under The Balanced Pattern

Indeed, since late November last year, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market has experienced quite obvious style conversion.

If the market style is largely balanced before the market starts, then the first wave driven by interest rate cuts will be a big manifestation of the big blue chips.

During the period from November 20, 2014 to December 31st, the biggest increase in the Shanghai Composite Index 50 was 54.99%, while that in the same period was 6.46%.

It's 15.67%.

Obviously, the rise of blue chips is far ahead. They are the protagonists of the rising market.

This year, however, the situation is different. By the end of this week, the biggest increase in the Shanghai Stock Index 50 is 5.54% this year, while the small board rose by 44.68% in the same period, while the growth enterprise board was 61.20% higher.

There is no doubt that the market style has changed greatly in the first three months of this year compared with the situation at the end of last year.

So, from today's small and medium-sized boards, the gem has weakened, and the motherboard is relatively strong, whether the market will have a style change?

It can not be said that such a possibility does not exist, but at least now it can be said that it will be a small probability phenomenon.

Why? First, the stock market's rise has not been effectively supported by the real economy. From the 2014 annual report released by listed companies, the growth of those traditional blue chips is not ideal.

The banking sector, which has been showing two digit growth for many years, has a general profit growth of only about 6%, while profits from petrochemical, coal and other former big profits have generally fallen.

Obviously, for blue chips with excellent performance as a selling point, this will obviously reduce investors' interest in them.

If the market started last year, they had a more obvious valuation advantage because of the low price. Therefore, there was a great opportunity to get out of a very important valuation repair market under the background of large capital flocking into the market, and realized in a short time.

The surge.

However, after the completion of valuation repair, the motivation to continue to rise is insufficient. Naturally, the position of the leading position is handed out.

Since this year, the country has been promoting the development of new industries, especially for the concept of "Internet +", and the encouragement to the whole people, and the encouragement of all the entrepreneurs. All of them constitute the atmosphere conducive to the growth of small and medium board and the growth of the gem. In addition, in 2014, the average profit growth of the gem has reached more than 20%, and the profit growth of the Internet financial concept in the first quarter of this year is even more astonishing.

It can be said that just under the double impetus of performance growth and subject support, small and medium sized boards and gem have come to the fore.

Out of the sharp rise.

It is not possible for the small and medium sized gem to be so quiet at the end of last year.

Secondly, after all, the cumulative growth of small and medium sized boards and gem is larger, some stocks are highly valued, and in the rising market, it is inevitable that there is a mixed phenomenon of fish and fish. Therefore, it is necessary to adjust. On the other hand, blue chips in this period of time are collate more fully, and some share prices have also dropped. Their relative valuations have reflected some advantages to some extent. At the same time, some of these varieties also have the concept of "one belt and one road", so they are unwilling to be lonely and rebound.

The problem lies in the fact that blue chips are subject to fundamental constraints, while small and medium sized boards and gem are benefited from policy promotion, and such fundamentals still exist.

Therefore, within the next time, the market is likely to go to a certain equilibrium, that is, no longer a single style of market led by a certain plate, while the rest of the board can only relax on the spot. Two, all kinds of styles compete with each other. Whether blue chips or small and medium sized boards, GEM stocks can find opportunities to rise in the market.

Of course, there will still be a relatively good trend in a certain period of time, that is to say, under the balanced pattern, the structural market will still exist, but this is obviously different from the extreme "28" or "82" market in the previous period.

As a matter of fact, when the market goes further, it is not appropriate to distinguish the characteristics of the market by simply using the big or small plates or any good performances and themes. The market will tend to be diversified. Investors should emphasize the idea of omnidirectional operation.