Li Da Xiao: Most Of The So-Called High Growth Are Beautiful Fairy Tales.

How much money or stocks are there? The amount of banknotes is limited. If too many banknotes are inflationary, that country will not dare to pay too much money, but the number of stocks is unlimited, and it has no obligation to control inflation. Therefore, issuing shares in many countries is welcome. This is also an objective understanding of the stock treatment of many countries, so they all give relatively low prices and relatively high return on investment to correspond to the characteristics of this unlimited supply.

Because our A share market is relatively new, many investors have just come into contact with the stock market, and they lack the estimation of the unlimited supply characteristics of the stock. They often neglect the original characteristics in a special stage of relative supply control. Too high prices can not resist the risk of releasing the supply once, because our A share market has not signed the supply agreement.

How much growth is reasonable? Many people who buy stocks work in enterprises. They actually have a very objective understanding of where they are. But once they enter the capital market, they have very unrealistic expectations about the growth of the listed companies they buy. The listed companies are also part of the national economy. The so-called high growth is mostly beautiful fairy tales. This fairy tale is woven by many people, and only an innocent child tells the truth.

The average value of a plate is 100 times PE, which has exceeded the valuation level of the planet. It is considered that the theoretical basis of this valuation level and the value of investment is very fragile. It is very unwise to invest in large scale at this time.

The foam will eventually burst, and the only thing impossible is never blasting.

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In the March FOMC meeting statement, although the Fed deleted the phrase "patience", the tone of the statement was obviously partial to doves.

The Fed believes that the economy has slowed down since the FOMC conference in January, while significantly reducing target projections including GDP, core PCE and federal funds rate.

Based on this, the strength of the precious metals market has been successfully deleted from "patience" and pferred to the expectation that the rate hike point is likely to be postponed. This is also a key factor for the sharp rebound in gold and silver in recent trading days.

In the March FOMC economic forecast data, PCE inflation in 2015 was significantly reduced to 0.6% to 0.8% (1% in December last year to 1.6%), and the GDP growth rate was downgraded to 2.3% to 2.7% (December December was 2.6% to 3%).

It is worth mentioning that there seems to be some contradiction between the Federal Reserve's deletion of "patience" and its downgrading of US economic growth.

If the Fed believes that the economy is weak, why we should delete "patience", we can continue to be patient, but the Fed does not.

This may indicate that the Fed still has firm confidence in the steady growth of the US economy, and concerns about the recent slowdown in the economy, including the downgrading of the economic forecast data, are mostly aimed at smoothing the volatility of the financial market.

Although the Greek government has yielded to the pressure of European gold owners for some time ago, the reform proposals submitted have been approved by European allies, but the Greek issue is far from over.

After a brief period of stabilization, the Greek government's problem of money shortage was exposed, and the debt of the country's debt was not included in the purchase of European QE. The Greek stock market's bond market plummeted, and the ELA authorized by the European Central Bank seemed to be a drop in the bucket.

The European central bank intends to increase the ELA to 71 billion euros. On Wednesday evening, the European central bank commission and the governor of the Central Bank of Greece, speaking at the same time, said that the European Central Bank has agreed to increase the size of the ELA, while Greece has greatly reformed the tax system, believing that the reform plan can stimulate the growth potential, and the Greek banking industry is ready to face challenges.

Although FOMC has lowered US inflation and economic growth expectations, the latest data show that the US economy is still recovering steadily in the expansion of manufacturing and inflation in the United States, and there is still uncertainty in the outcome of the Greek negotiations.

The precious metals believe that the US Federal Reserve is confident of the US economy and that the US dollar index adjustment space is limited. This rebound may have reached the top. The opportunity for high position to sell gold is expected to come.

Silver prices follow the trend of gold prices.

Technically, silver continued to rise and entered the stage of concussion and finishing. More kinetic energy had subsided; the MACD index passed through the zero axis and the red energy column had subsided; KDJ indicated that the 1 Index entered the overbought stage.

The precious metals believe that as the Federal Reserve postponed the increase in interest rates, it expected that the good will gradually subsided, and silver on the technical indicators also entered the overbought area.