Dong Dengxin: Carnival Building Bubble Mad Cow No Garbage

China's stock market is a typical "retail market". The bull market rushing headlong into the herd and the bear market going all in a hubbub are the biggest characteristics of the retail market.

Such a stock market is not only a bull market but also a terrible bear market. Every slow and long bear market is robbing and damaging physical wealth.

How to prevent or defuse the risk of Slow Bear's quilt and avoid repeated visits is a big thing that should be reconsidered.

Yesterday, when the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3786 points, the stock market of A shares was less than 4 yuan, leaving only one agricultural bank. That is to say, ABC has become the most valuable stock in the A share market.

If ABC is not a junk share, there will be no junk stocks in the Chinese stock market.

Because in the mature market, low price shares are synonymous with junk stocks, and now the A share price has disappeared across the board.

However, according to the preview statistics of the 2014 annual report, there are more than 600 listed companies in the A share market with a loss or a slight profit (that is, less than 5 cents per share of earnings per year).

In June 25, 2013, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 1849 points, hitting the lowest level after 2009 3478.

According to the WIND data, in June 13, 2013, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2148 points. On the same day, 2469 A share prices were distributed, nearly 60% of the shares were less than 10 yuan, and the proportion of shares below 10 yuan was less than 18%. In addition, in June 13, 2013, only 20 of the shares were 10%, and now the share of 20 yuan or more accounted for more than 40%.

Compared with October 16, 2007, the stock market bubble has exceeded 6124 points.

Judging from the proportion of low price shares below 10 yuan, it was 26.6% at 6124 points. Now it is only 17.8%. From the share of 20 yuan or more, it is 30.3% at 6124 o'clock, but now it is as high as 40.9%.

At present, more than 100 times price earnings ratio accounts for 42.9% of the shares. This is a stock market that is flying across the board. The stock price ratio below 30 times is basically low.

In the current A share market, not only can everyone tell stories, they all praise each other, but the mood of investors is generally high and exciting. Only higher and highest slogans are coming and going.

This is a very crazy, terrible mad cow scene! Once the bubble burst, the risk is far more terrible than 1664!

China's stock market has skyrocketing, as always, one step in place, crazy over the top, and even worse, it has been seriously out of the support of China's macroeconomic fundamentals, and the share price has seriously overdrawn the growth of Listed Companies in the next three, five or even ten years.

At present, China's heavy chemical industry has serious excess capacity, real estate development and big bubble burst, 10 trillion of local debt platforms are in great danger, labor costs have risen sharply, net profit growth has dropped from about 30% to about 6%, and banks' bad loans have rebounded sharply.

China's economic pformation and industrial upgrading have many difficulties and huge resistance.

From the perspective of the reform process of capital market,

The revision and A share IPO registration system reform is extremely difficult and slow.

Some people say that China's stock market is not a real market. There are two main reasons:

First, the A share market is still not the market, because the SFC directly controls the IPO rhythm and IPO pricing, and the primary market has no right to supply and demand.

The enterprise has no right to determine the time of its IPO, and the stock exchange has no right to conduct the listing examination. Investors have no right to express their right to speak to IPO.

Second,

It has been insisting on direct regulation and control of stock market ups and downs, and its commonly used adjustment methods have changed from the past stamp duty adjustment to IPO rhythm control.

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In a sharp fall, the SFC will adopt an executive order to "suspend the IPO", which marks the advent of the bear market in the eyes of the SFC, and the stock market will go away and the market will accelerate.

On the contrary, once the stock market has gone up, the SFC will adopt the executive order to "restart IPO", which marks the advent of the bull market in the eyes of the SFC, and retail investors will rush into a rush to take part in the speculation and gambling.

This is the unique "policy market" of China's stock market.

Only by accelerating the implementation of IPO registration system can China's stock market leave the embrace of the SFC and enter a truly market-oriented and legalized channel.

Otherwise, we have developed the stock market for 25 years but still can not be a real market. This is indeed a kind of embarrassment, but also the misfortune of the investors.

Because the IPO registration system can not only greatly meet the huge demand of Chinese investors to stir up small businesses, but also the IPO registration system is the most concentrated embodiment of the spirit of marketization, rule of law and international reform. Chinese shareholders and A shares need to register.

The SFC must speed up the reform and implementation of registration system. There is no alternative but no retreat.