Xinjiang: The Lint Market Is Cooling Again

In recent days, the cotton market in Akesu, Bachu and other places has returned to silence. Enquiries and the number of mainland cotton business operators, cotton mills and civilian cotton customers who have seen the warehouse and warehouse have decreased, while the 3128 and 2128 level gross weight pickup prices at Akesu and Korla in the southern Xinjiang are stable at 13100-13300 yuan / ton, 13500-13700 yuan / ton, and the gross weight pickup price of the 2128 grade in the inland bank is generally above 14000 yuan / ton. On the one hand, bank loans were returned to the ginning factories at the end of March. offer In the early stage of weakening, the mentality of "no more than no shortage" was dominant, and the psychological gap between buyers and sellers was widened. On the other hand, the mainland's inventory of cotton and other raw materials dropped to the horizon (10-20 days), but the shortage of short-term orders made cotton mills, Printing and dyeing mill The garment factories have slowed down the procurement progress to varying degrees, and the procurement of cotton enterprises within the territory can only be suspended.

For nearly two days Zhengzhou The contracts for cotton futures continued to fall down. In March 31st, the CF1507 contract fell below 13000 yuan / ton ton in the market. Generally speaking, the intra industry enterprises had little influence on the high-grade hand picking cotton. On the one hand, the difference between hand picked cotton and machine picked cotton was 800-1000 yuan / ton from the cost point of view, and the price of hand picked cotton in the mainland market was only 13800-14000 yuan / ton, not that of the Zhengzhou group, but that of the weathervane was slow. On the other hand, although the cotton and Flax Company of the Corps actively collected and collected 500 thousand tons of machine picked cotton from the teachers' ginning factory, the impact on the spot market was not large because of the internal operation of the 800-1000 party.

But taking into account the completion of the 500 thousand ton storage and acquisition, the sales progress will exceed 50%. Once the price of the regiment is increased, the promotion of cotton picking and hand picking will be great. A number of cotton enterprises in the southern Xinjiang indicated that the number of hand picked cotton in Xinjiang was estimated to be less than 1 million tons by the end of March. In the 6 months of 4-9 months, except for the 894 thousand tons of cotton import quotas within the 1% tariff range, Xinjiang cotton will remain the mainstay of consumption in addition to the high grade cotton, Australia cotton and Brazil cotton. The high-grade hand picked cotton stocks are not too many but too few.

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Recently, temperatures in Shandong, Hebei and Henan have risen and everything is reviving. A cotton grower in Shangqiu, Henan said that the big guys began buying cotton seeds, fertilizers, pesticides and so on. At present, the price of local cotton seeds is slightly lower than that of last year. The seed cost is generally 35-40 yuan / mu, which is 4-5 yuan / mu less than last year. The plastic film and pesticide increased slightly compared with last year. The two samples should be added to 230-240 yuan per mu. "It is estimated that the total cost of seed cotton is slightly higher than that of last year." The cotton grower said that in addition, the cotton planting in Henan province was relatively early in the whole the Yellow River basin, and it is expected to start in early April. From the perspective of cotton growers today, the area of key cotton areas in Shangqiu, Zhengzhou and Xinxiang has been reduced by about 40%.

Shandong Dezhou cotton grower Lao Zhao said that the estimated cotton planting area this year or around 1 million 500 thousand acres, compared with 2 million 700 thousand acres in 2014 decreased by 44%. Lao Zhao said, at present, we hope that the direct subsidy will be put in place as soon as possible. If the direct subsidy is issued before the spring sowing, some cotton farmers and big households may choose to grow cotton. The spring sowing time in Hebei and Tianjin is usually in late 4 to early May. Therefore, only a few cotton farmers are ready to prepare cotton seeds and buy agricultural products. In general, the enthusiasm for planting cotton is still not high.

"The market downturn is still the main reason why cotton growers fail to get up." A market source said that in March 29th, the mainstream sales price of Hebei's 3128 class real estate cotton was 12900-13100 yuan / ton, and 4128 grade 12500 yuan / ton. Because of the strong mentality of many investors, many ginning plants promise in the actual sales process: as long as they are going to the factory to pick up the goods and settle accounts in cash, the enterprise can make a profit of 150-200 yuan / ton. More enterprises will directly expand the profit margin to 300 yuan / ton. Shandong, Dezhou, Binzhou and Tianjin are already a voice of "Hawking" and "cutting meat". The spot of real estate cotton has gone to the awkward situation of "no one in the busy market."

In fact, the real estate cotton spot "Waterloo", the main culprits are Xinjiang cotton and outer cotton. Mr. Liu, a cotton trader, said that in March, there were 40-50 tons of Xinjiang fine wool cotton entering the the Yellow River River Basin market. Both hand picked cotton, organic cotton and some long staple cotton. This resulted in a major reversal of the supply and demand relationship in the the Yellow River River Basin, and the price of Xinjiang cotton has generally fallen by 300-400 yuan / ton due to the sharp drop in freight costs. On the 30 day, Mr. Liu reduced his grade 3128 Xinjiang hand picked cotton to 13400-13500 yuan / ton, the machine picked cotton dropped to 13000 yuan / ton, and the 2129 grade Xinjiang hand picked cotton also dropped to 14000 yuan / ton. On the two day (28-29 th) of the weekend, the number of cotton growing outside Qingdao logistics area increased significantly, mainly in India cotton and Brazil cotton, and the number of cotton in the United States increased, but the quality was generally. Some traders go to inventory pressure, a cry of "Hawking". On the 29 day, the port S-6 India cotton sale price was 13500-13600 yuan / ton, while the inferior quality Chen cotton was 13000 yuan / ton; the US cotton SM class price was 15300-15400 yuan / ton. According to traders, there is still a possibility of falling cotton prices in the near future.