The Climax Of RMB Exchange Rate Has Reached A Climax.

In the short term, the market may form the expectation of RMB's accession to the SDR, which will lead to the appreciation of RMB and bring some appreciation pressure to the RMB.

At the same time, with the accelerated pace of convertibility reform, the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate will also increase under the influence of balance of payments and capital flows.

According to the latest data from China foreign exchange trading center, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar in April 7th was 6.1305, up 43 basis points from the previous trading day, which is the highest in nearly two months since February 17th.

In addition, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar opened 37 basis points yesterday morning, at 6.1894, rising for sixth consecutive trading days.

With the consolidation of the US dollar, the central parity of RMB has changed slightly since mid March. The central parity of RMB has risen three consecutive trading days and has gained 129 basis points in April.

Among them, the RMB against the US dollar in March 31st.

It rose 81 basis points to 6.1996, and two consecutive trading days strengthened against the middle price.

At this point, the RMB spot exchange rate rose 1.12% in March, and successfully pulled out of the three superimposed factors caused by the dollar appreciation, the new round of global easing and the slowdown in domestic economic growth. In the first quarter, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar rose slightly by 0.07%.

Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of Communications (601328, stock bar), said that the recent appreciation of the renminbi is affected by the uncertainty of the US interest rate increase in the middle of the year, but it will not be a turning point in the strength of the US dollar.

Raising interest rates is still a matter of time.

Lian Ping also said that the RMB exchange rate tends to be reasonable in two-way fluctuations.

It will not appreciate too much, nor will it depreciate too much.

At the same time, the trade surplus also supports the RMB exchange rate.

In recent days, Zhou Xiaochuan, vice president of the central bank and Yi Gang, have publicly indicated that the RMB's accession to the special drawing rights (SDR) is conducive to promoting the reform of the international monetary system, and will also play a catalytic role in the reform and opening up of China's financial sector.

The popularity of Asia Investment Bank and its accession to the SDR are the reflection of the internationalization of RMB and create an external environment for RMB appreciation in the near future.

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Barclays Plc and DBS Group Holdings said that in May, when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) began to explore the renminbi to be included in the global reserve currency, Chinese policymakers would do everything possible to ensure the stability of the RMB exchange rate in May.

Indeed, policymakers have been using the foreign exchange reserves of about US $4 trillion to do so. In the first quarter, China estimated that US $33 billion foreign exchange reserves should be used to curb the decline of the renminbi.

The decline led to a two-year low of RMB in March.

Although the depreciation of the renminbi will help boost exports and support slowing economic growth, it will hinder China's efforts to turn the renminbi into an international trade and financing currency.

According to foreign media analysis, China is trying to challenge the hegemony of the US dollar and the global economic order led by Europe and the United States. Pushing IMF into the special drawing rights (SDR) currency basket is the core link to realize this concept.

Zhou Hongli, an economist at DBS in Hongkong, said: "Chinese policymakers will never allow the renminbi to plummet. If you want others to make RMB a reserve asset, it is not wise to let it depreciate significantly at this time."

Zhou Hongli predicted that the probability of RMB being included in the SDR currency basket this year is 90%.

Once IMF is included in SDR, it means that the yuan is officially among the reserve currencies of the US dollar, euro, yen and sterling.