Within The Supervision Of The Qufu Cotton Price Quotes To Stabilize The Southern Xinjiang Long Staple Cotton "Spring Is Full Of Vitality"

It is reported that

Low prices and the stalemate between buyers and sellers are contrasted. It is said that long staple cotton can be described as "spring full of vitality".

Not only cotton processing enterprises generally reluctant to sell, less circulation of goods, and long staple cotton quotes "sesame flowering high", local enterprises 137, 237 quotes concentrated in 27600-28000 yuan / ton, 26500-27000 yuan / ton, lower than the Corps long staple cotton price 500-800 yuan / ton.

It is understood that the 9-10 day of April, the supervision of the qubu cotton is relatively stable, and is not subject to Zheng cotton futures, ICE

The adjustment of large fluctuations has resulted in a 2129 (2128) gross weight lifting price of 13500-13700 yuan / ton, 3129 (3128) 13100-13400 yuan / ton, and the quoted price below 13100 yuan / ton basically disappeared.

On the one hand, by the end of March, most of the territory

The sales ratio of processing enterprises reached more than 50%, and most of them were "low sale and high storage". The pressure on loan repayment before the end of May was not large, and the expected increase in the supply of domestic high-grade cotton in 4-9 months was high. On the other hand, the cost of supporting cotton lint was relatively strong. Some cotton processing enterprises in southern Xinjiang indicated that even if they did not calculate half a year's financial cost and short distance pportation costs, the cost of hand picked cotton was over 14000 yuan / ton, and the current cost and price upside down range was 500-800 yuan / ton.

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For the impact of the new year's cotton prices, most of the ginning mills are losing money from this year's point of view. The main reason is that the high price of seed cotton has not been able to sell the lint at high price. According to the cost of the initial acquisition of 14500 yuan / ton, plus the interest and warehousing costs at the later stage, the loss per ton is close to 1000 yuan, which may lead to a more cautious purchase of cotton enterprises in the next year, and the possibility of buying down the market at the initial stage is more likely.

However, from the overall output, the intention of planting cotton in the mainland has dropped by about 31%, and the decline in Xinjiang is expected to be 9%. Of course, this is only a survey of planting intentions, but the decline in overall output is a foregone conclusion, and the output of the whole country will probably drop to around 5 million 300 thousand tons.

Even if aggregate demand continues to slide, the supply and demand structure has begun to reverse. Of course, the premise is to continue to control imports, because a large number of national repository stores exist, so this is a big probability event.

As a result, the new supply of the new year may only be around 6 million 200 thousand tons. Analysts believe that the most likely time for dumping is still in the latter part of the year, so the market is more likely to recover.

From a microcosmic point of view, for cotton farmers, because of the fact that the combined price of the actual subsidy and the selling price has not reached 19800 yuan / ton in most regions this year, cotton farmers will choose to protect their own interests if the target price is lower this year.