Interpretation Of The Impact Of Target Price On Cotton Market

Analysts believe that cotton prices in the new year are likely to go up and down gradually after a low oscillation.

Judging from the absolute price, the subsidy of 700 yuan / ton is actually reduced to less than 0.4 yuan per kilogram of cotton per kilogram. Therefore, from the impact of planting area, the cotton growers of this kind of cotton will still grow, and will not produce too much impact. The decline of planting area is mainly due to the overall decline of cotton yield last year and the lower efficiency.

For the new year Cotton price The impact of this year, most of the ginning mills are losing money, mainly because the high price of seed cotton but not high price selling lint, according to the initial acquisition of 14500 yuan / ton of cost, plus interest later. Storage And other costs, the loss per ton is close to 1000 yuan, which may lead to a more cautious purchase of cotton enterprises in the next year.

But in terms of overall output, the cotton growing areas in the mainland Planting intention Slipping around 31%, Xinjiang's decline is expected to be 9%, which is, of course, only a survey of planting intentions. However, the decline in overall output is a foregone conclusion, and the output of the whole country is likely to drop to around 5 million 300 thousand tons.

Even if aggregate demand continues to slide, the supply and demand structure has begun to reverse. Of course, the premise is to continue to control imports, because a large number of national repository stores exist, so this is a big probability event. As a result, the new supply of the new year may only be around 6 million 200 thousand tons. Analysts believe that the most likely time for dumping is still in the latter part of the year, so the market is more likely to recover.

From a microcosmic point of view, for cotton farmers, because of the fact that the combined price of the actual subsidy and the selling price has not reached 19800 yuan / ton in most regions this year, cotton farmers will choose to protect their own interests if the target price is lower this year.

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It is reported that compared with the low price of fine cotton and the hard confrontation between buyers and sellers, the long staple cotton can be described as "spring full of vitality".

Not only cotton processing enterprises generally reluctant to sell, less circulation of goods, and long staple cotton quotes "sesame flowering high", local enterprises 137, 237 quotes concentrated in 27600-28000 yuan / ton, 26500-27000 yuan / ton, lower than the Corps long staple cotton price 500-800 yuan / ton.

It is understood that, on 9-10 April, the quotation of the supervision of the qubu cotton was relatively stable, and it was not adjusted by the large fluctuation of Zheng cotton futures and ICE cotton. The 2129 (2128) gross weight pick up price was 13500-13700 yuan / ton, 3129 (3128) grade 13100-13400 yuan / ton, and the quoted price below 13100 yuan / ton basically disappeared.

On the one hand, as of the end of March, most of the cotton processing enterprises in the territory sold more than 50% of their sales, and most of them were "low in storage and high in storage". The pressure on repayment of loans before the end of May was not great, and the expected increase in the supply of domestic high-grade cotton in 4-9 months; on the other hand, the cost of supporting cotton lint was relatively strong. Some cotton processing enterprises in southern Xinjiang indicated that even if they did not calculate half a year's financial expenses and short distance transportation costs, the cost of hand picked cotton was over 14000 yuan / ton, and the current cost and price upside down range was 500-800 yuan / ton.