Investment Skills: Underestimate Blue Chips Or Have Excess Returns.

The allocation of new funds is the key to the future market trend.

UBS Securities A share strategy The team believes that the current growth stocks have become a stalemate, Hong Kong stock market has become a new market variable, and the relative risk of the market is limited. Traditional fundamentals can no longer be a reason for falling. But recently, the mainland's funds go south and Hong Kong stocks reflect from the side that mainland investors are beginning to avoid the high valuation of small stocks and advance the layout of Shenzhen Hong Kong stock exchange. The diversion of Hong Kong stocks has become a new variable.

UBS Securities said that the future risks come from two aspects, on the one hand Stock supply In particular, the bank PB has gone back to 1 times to start the refinancing scheme; on the other hand, it is monitoring risks, tightening up the two financial businesses, regulating the entry of financial capital into the market, investigating the illegal disclosure of companies, etc., but the possibility of the current occurrence is still small.

UBS Securities and other institutional investors believe that the two quarter is expected Undervalue blue chip We will have excess returns on growth stocks and suggest a balanced allocation portfolio. At present, UBS focuses on recommending banks to underestimate the value of the non silver financial and real estate sector, while recommending investors to focus on three major themes: Shenzhen and Hong Kong, to "Internet + +", China made 2025 and local state-owned enterprises to reform asset injection and the overall listing.

For example, since the beginning of this year, the newly established public fund has accounted for nearly 50% of the funds which are less than 1 billion scale, but 90% of the funds come from funds larger than 1 billion. For larger volume of new capital, the PE valuation level of gem and small and medium board has exceeded 96 and 64 times. After the GEM stocks have gone up, they continue to choose small and medium capitalization stocks such as the opening of the gem, and the risk return ratio has been inappropriate. It is expected that these larger funds will be allocated blue chip stocks with an undervalued value.

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If there is no further impetus, the gem index is likely to turn downward.

Orient Securities believes that from the internal situation, the current gem valuation, the overall valuation of gem nearly 90 times, many stocks even more than 100 times, the market value of the entire gem has nearly 4 trillion yuan.

The growth rate of GEM has basically exceeded the basic stage, and more is expected, and this expectation has been more than six months ahead of schedule. Many investors compare this round of valuation to the market dream rate. It is good to have a dream. If it happens, it has always encouraged investors to enjoy the feast under the bubble.

Judging from the external situation, Orient Securities believes that observing the NASDAQ index is forward-looking. But in the near future, the Nasdaq was at a low level after the 5042 point high, especially after the US economy was lower than expected.

The stagnation of the NASDAQ also makes the investment style of the world oscillate briefly. At this time, the gem will at least lose the strong push from the outside to break through further. In many private terms of investors, this stage is likely to be a signal of accelerating peaking.

But Orient Securities also reminds us that when the gem is about to achieve 100 times valuations, investors need to stay half conscious and half drunk. At this time, we need to sober up rather than indulge in the bubble.