"Terrorist Data" Hit The US Dollar Uptrend, Will The Federal Reserve Raise Interest Rates Postpone?

The US retail sales in March were not as good as expected in March, triggering a large profit margin rush, and the US dollar index fell more than 100 points, the biggest decline in a week.

Data show that the US retail sales month rate increased by only 0.9% in March, with an expected growth of 1% and a 0.5% decline in the previous value. At the same time, the core retail sales month rate in March also increased by only 0.4%, an increase of 0.6% and a 0.5% decline in the previous value.

After the release of the data, the US dollar index near 99.55 was rapidly descending, and the exchange rate reached a minimum of 98.37. The US dollar index rebounded slightly to the 99 pass on Wednesday, waiting for guidance from the fundamentals.

Technically, in the daily line level, after the dollar index tumbled yesterday, the exchange rate has the risk of forming a double summit. The MACD index of red kinetic energy column was narrowed, indicating the weakening of multiparty ability.

At present, the exchange rate is still suppressed by the 5 day moving average (which is now near 99.15). Under the support, the first concern is yesterday's low 98.40 level, followed by the 30 day moving average 98.23.

Sluggish Retail sales Let the market worry more about the US economy, and investors will deepen the doubts that the Federal Reserve may postpone raising interest rates.

"The US economic data led to further consolidation of the US dollar," Credit Agricole, a foreign exchange strategist at Mark Agricole in New York, said. Economic weakness "

Well, dollar What is the extent of the future callback? Kathy Lien, chief foreign currency strategist at BK Asset Management, analyzed this.

Lien said, "the overnight pressure on the US dollar is the first time in the past 6 trading days. Investors need to find a reason to profit from the early bull market. It seems that the weak retail sales data have become the perfect excuse.

He is optimistic that, "the euro / dollar will rebound to 1.08 levels, the dollar / yen will fall to the 118.25 line, and the US dollar's fall or that is the end."

According to Lien, "retail sales data will not affect the market's long-term view of the dollar. There are risks in holding non US currencies such as the euro, the pound and the Australian dollar. For example, the risk of Greece's withdrawal from the euro zone, the risk of the British general election and the risk of further cuts by the Australian Federal Reserve. The best strategy for trading dollars is still waiting for the dollar to fall after buying opportunities.