The Possibility Of RMB Being Selected For SDR Is Close To 40%.

The newly established Asian infrastructure investment bank has demonstrated the determination of China to play a more important role in the international financial system, and has received extensive support from developing countries and developed countries.

Deutsche Bank predicts that China's RMB internationalization and capital account liberalization will exceed market expectations in the next few years.

Deutsche Bank predicts that the possibility of RMB entering the SDR this year will be 40%, and the possibility of it will be expanded to 70% by the end of 2016.

Deutsche Bank predicted that the government will introduce reform measures in the two or three quarter of this year to promote the RMB to join the SDR basket of currencies.

The relevant regulatory authorities announced in March that China will work to achieve RMB convertibility in 2015.

China's capital account liberalization is expected to make significant progress in the year, but it will not be fully open.

Opening up will facilitate the realization of net inflow of international capital in 2015.

There are three reasons for Zhang Zhiwei analysis: first, compared to

Overseas investors are facing more barriers.

In view of the limited channels of overseas investment in China's capital market, the gradual liberalization of capital account is expected to lead more capital inflows. Secondly, the government will be cautious in the early stage of capital account liberalization and will be prepared.

To prevent destructive capital outflows; once again, interest rates on the offshore and offshore sides of the renminbi will continue to support capital inflows.

Shanghai and Hong Kong through the paction data after the launch also confirms the capital net inflow situation.

Deutsche Bank believes that capital account liberalization will benefit the capital market, RMB and even China's economic development this year.

Net capital flows will push up asset prices such as stocks and bonds and push the appreciation of the renminbi.

In macroeconomic terms, capital account liberalization will trigger other structural reforms to provide more financial support for economic development.

Although capital account liberalization may exacerbate the shock of cross-border capital flows, the Chinese government has fully recognized its risks and may introduce prudent macro policies to strictly control risks.

Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist of Greater China in Deutsche Bank recently released a report that China is expected to achieve RMB convertibility this year. The IMF may consider the composition of the SDR currency basket in October this year.

Even if the yuan loses its vote on the SDR currency in October this year, China will continue to apply for membership in 2016.