The Sharp Decline In Cotton Planting Area Is Not Optimistic.

It is understood that the recent state announced that Xinjiang cotton target price per ton of 19100 tons, higher than the previous farmers, planting units and the expectations of the agricultural sector within the territory, cotton planting intention has a slow recovery trend.

By the middle of April, Xinjiang's southern Xinjiang and the Yangtze River and the Yellow River River Basin cotton area has entered the spring sowing period. From all aspects of planting intention survey and current actual seeding situation, in 2015, Anhui, Jiangsu, Hubei and Hebei, Shandong and other places cotton planting area or overall decline 30-40%, individual cotton producing counties even reduced by more than 50%, the comparative efficiency fell sharply, grain prices stable and labor costs increased substantially is the main reason.

The reasons for the large decrease in cotton planting area are as follows:

1, since 2012, the cotton yield has been three consecutive drops, the grain and cotton price parity is obviously unbalanced. In 2015, the Xinjiang autonomous region development and Reform Commission, the finance department and the agriculture department jointly issued the "notice on seriously reducing the cotton planting area in Xinjiang". It clearly stated that "at present, the price of cotton futures in the world and within the country fluctuates at a low price. This year, the target price of cotton will be lower than that of the previous year, and the comparative benefit of cotton planting is generally lower than that of previous years."

Therefore, the relevant departments should focus on the new changes in the current cotton market, strengthen the propaganda and guidance of cotton planting area reduction, reduce cotton scientifically, prevent blind planting and reduce planting risks.

Cotton planting area should be reduced as the most important task of agriculture and rural areas.

At the same time, we should increase the planting of grain crops such as spring wheat, corn and small grains, and make good use of the "order agriculture" as the precondition. We should replant and produce special economic crops such as capsicum and processed tomatoes.

Subsequently, various regions, cities, counties and townships at all levels held agricultural and peasant symposiums, and suggested expanding the planting of long staple cotton, spring wheat, walnuts and other fruits in southern Xinjiang.

In North Xinjiang, production and marketing docking was carried out, and wheat, corn, tomato, pepper and alfalfa were planted. The farmers responded positively. Besides picking cotton, the cotton planting with hand picking dropped more.

According to some seed companies in the mainland and Xinjiang, the sales of fine cotton seeds were mostly less than 2/3 in 2014 as of mid April. Farmers said that although wheat and corn were not outstanding, the prices were very stable compared with that of cotton.

2, a large part of the wasteland that has been reclaimed, the Farmland Contracted by the government, and the withdrawal of cotton fields that have been converted from farmland to forest.

According to the opinions of the relevant ministries and commissions of the autonomous region, "farmers gradually withdraw from the sub suitable cotton area, the risk cotton area and the low yield cotton area". In some areas, farmers are actively guided to cultivate crops with high economic benefits and market safeguards. Farmers still tend to grow grain crops with comprehensive subsidies for agricultural production, subsidies for fine varieties and subsidies for agricultural machinery.

It is understood that in 2014 many open wasteland was leased abroad.

And cotton plants in the unplanned field do not receive direct compensation for cotton target prices. Many cotton farmers in Korla, Akesu and Bachu do not calculate the 100% deficit of the national direct subsidy cotton seed.

It is slightly profitable. Therefore, farmers will be able to adjust the direction of wheat, long staple cotton, corn and other crops in a wide range under the premise that cotton is not subsidized.

3, 19100 yuan / ton cotton target price is a double-edged sword.

It is bad or more profitable than it is.

In 2014/15, most of the cotton seed cotton sale price in the southern Xinjiang was 6.00-6.30 yuan / kg (the lowest 5.50 yuan / kg, the highest 6.80 yuan / kg), plus the subsidy of 1.30-1.45 yuan / kg, the total income was mostly 7.30-7.75 yuan / kg, and only a few farmers earned more than 8 yuan / kg.

Even in such a seed cotton price level, the territory of the ginning factory is still very large, and in 2015 cotton target price direct subsidy from 19800 yuan / ton to 19100 yuan / ton, although on the surface, seed cotton purchase price fell by 0.20 yuan / kg, but considering the cotton processing enterprise "once bitten by a snake, ten years afraid of the rope", 2015 acquisition will be exceptionally cautious, seed cotton average purchase price to break through 6 yuan / kg may be very difficult.

Some farmers and cotton planting units believe that the spot price of lint in 2015/16 will reach 19100 yuan / ton. The expected price of seed cotton will reach the highest income of 19100 yuan / ton, which must be deducted from 5% of the operating expenses. For a large number of farmers who contract and lease land, even if there is no big disaster income, it is hard to say that the pace of adjusting the industrial structure will not slow down, but will accelerate.

From the recent research on the sowing situation of Xinjiang seed company, agricultural material company and some cotton producing counties in southern Xinjiang, it can be seen that, in addition to the factors of enlarging the planting area of long staple cotton in Akesu, Korla and Bachu, the area of fine cotton will be reduced by more than 15% in 2015, and some cotton producing counties will even decrease to 25-0%. Among them, the cotton planting area of the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps has been reduced by nearly 1/3, and the planting area of rice, wheat and other food crops, such as tomatoes, capsicum, fruits and so on, has been expanding continuously. Some institutions and cotton enterprises predict that the planting area of Xinjiang cotton will not exceed 25 million mu in 2015.