Polyester Filament Takes The Lead In Recovery And Profitability Continues To Grow.

Polyester factory goes stock smoothly, downstream textile and garment industry needs to pick up, polyester factory operation improves, operation rate increases, polyester fiber main varieties spreads widen, polyester filament enterprises take the lead in achieving profit reversal.

In 2015, downstream textile mills expected the price of raw materials to rise, and the profitability of filaments enterprises continued to increase.

Next two years

Capacity growth slowed, problem productivity accelerated exit, 2015

Decline.

Continuous losses in the industry continued to integrate, industry concentration increased, bargaining power increased, demand with the downstream boom, the supply and demand pattern continued to improve.

PTA leading enterprises have obvious cost advantages and significant improvement in profitability.

Crude oil prices will stabilize and go out of the bottom.

Upstream.

Industry leader Hengyi petrochemical, Rongsheng petrochemical and Tong Kun shares have 610, 580 and 1 million 500 thousand tons PTA capacity and 165, 100 and 3 million ton polyester filament production capacity respectively.

The price difference of PTA and polyester filament increased by 100 yuan, respectively, thickening Hengyi petrochemical, Rongsheng petrochemical and Tong Kun shares EPS0.39, 0.34 and 0.29 yuan.

Polyester industry chain upstream and downstream production capacity cycle dislocation is the main reason for PX-PTA-PET imbalance in different periods.

The change of upstream and downstream production capacity structure will lead to changes in supply and demand patterns of all sectors, and will also lead to the pfer and redistribution of profits in industrial chain.

After 2015, PX production capacity expanded faster than PTA and PET in the middle and lower reaches, and polyester industry entered a new era of PX surplus.

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At least until mid May, the domestic low and medium yarn will still be a "long bear market".

The decline of China's medium and low grade cotton, especially Xinjiang's machine picked cotton, is likely to drag on the cotton yarn market.

And under the premise of China's tightening import volume, India cotton prices will continue to fall, will also drag on domestic cotton yarn.

As the weather gets hotter and hotter, orders for summer wear will increase, and orders for spring and winter wear will be reduced, which is a great pressure on medium and low count yarns.

Since April, the domestic cotton yarn market has been highly polarised.

On the one hand, the number of cotton yarn with C40S and above has been continuously sold because of the low inventory of cotton mills and the relatively good orders. The quotation is relatively strong, and some factories with stable quality, moderate price, acceptable acceptance or domestic letter of credit have even queued orders. On the other hand, the quotation of ring spinning and spinning spinning of C32S and below not only dropped 200 yuan ~300 yuan / ton again in late March, but also under the premise of India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Central Asia and other imported cotton yarn soldiers, the order of domestic low and low grade cotton yarn was obviously shrinking, and the stock of textile products was heavily overloaded.

At present, Hebei and Henan area's cotton and cotton combed compact spinning 40S is quoted at 27000 yuan / ton line, and the price of a Xinjiang enterprise's cotton combed ring spinning 40S is 27200 yuan / ton, all of which are bleached.

The overall price level is flat compared to last week, and the sales progress of the company is not very mild.

The yarn with long staple cotton is also strong. Recently, the price of 100% long staple cotton combed 80S in a textile factory in Jiangsu was quoted at 56600 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week.

According to the analysis, the price of medium and high count yarn is stable. First, the quality of high quality cotton is stable and strong.

Recently, Xinjiang hand picked cotton grade 3128 and grade 2128 Shandong warehouse pick up price were 13500 yuan / ton, 13900 yuan ~14000 yuan / ton, the cotton mill said that the price is relatively high, but the upstream cotton prices will be stronger.

Two, because the order is relatively abundant, enterprises basically have no inventory pressure.

Many textile enterprises indicated that the sales of medium and high count yarns increased with the increase of summer orders, and most of them did not have much stock.

In addition, the competition between medium and high count yarn from outer yarns is relatively small.

But there is no such good luck in medium and low branches and low spun yarns.

At present, the price of 21S and 32S of a spinning enterprise in Zhengzhou, Henan is 18400 yuan, ~18600 yuan / ton, 20500 yuan / ton respectively, and the price of 10S, 12S and 16S is 13800 yuan / ton, 14400 yuan / ton, 15600 yuan / ton respectively, down 100 yuan / ton, 120 yuan / ton, 80 yuan / ton compared with last week.

A person in charge of the enterprise said that it is difficult to sell the medium and low yarn goods now, and the pressure is great.

One is the increase in the inventory of low and medium yarn, up to 25~28 days, an increase of 2~3 days from the same period last year; two, because the order is scarce, the operating rate of the enterprises has declined.

In addition, the quality of upstream cotton is poor, and prices continue to decline, which also cast a shadow over the medium and low yarn.

Besides, the impact of outer yarns is also a major reason why China's medium and low count yarns are "unable to go down". Therefore, in April, yarns showed different characteristics of "inside and outside".

The yarn outside the port continued to slide. At present, a trader in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, introduced that the price of 21S for port combed weaving was 17400 yuan ~17600 yuan / ton, down by 300~400 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of April, and the 32S quoted price was 19500~19800 yuan / ton, which fell by 400~500 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of April.

Two, the difference between outer yarn and domestic yarn is large.

At present, the main price of domestic 21S and 32S is 18400 yuan ~18800 yuan / ton, 20400 yuan ~21000 yuan / ton respectively, compared with the same outer yarn price difference of 1000 yuan ~1200 yuan / ton, so the advantage of today's outer yarn is still obvious.

According to traders, there is an increase in the number of yarn coming to the port. At present, the stock of China's main port should be no less than 60 thousand tons, or 7~8 million tons, which will bring pressure to Chinese yarns while the outer yarns are also facing the possibility of further price reductions.