Brief Comment On Ji Lu Yu Yarn Market

At present, cotton prices are relatively stable. It is reported that this year's Australian cotton production decreased by 40%, affected by the reduction of cotton production in many areas, the industry's analysis of cotton yarn prices may have upward trend.

Today, we learned that the price of PET staple 1.33*38mm specifications in North China has reached 8500 yuan / ton, and viscose staple fiber is currently selling at 12500 yuan / ton. As raw material prices are developing rapidly, the downstream orders and orders are more cautious. It is understood that a spinning enterprise in Hebei has a lot of orders for viscose in the early stage. raw material The price influence, the downstream is hesitant, the spinning enterprise is worried about the order, so it decides that the viscose varieties first slow down the progress after spinning the pre contract, temporarily stop buying viscose raw materials, and control the risk.

Because of the current situation in Hebei, Shandong and Henan provinces Spinning enterprises There are more manufacturers of blended yarns, and the price of polyester raw materials is affecting more textile enterprises. Although prices are rising continuously, manufacturers who are producing polyester cotton yarn using a large number of polyester raw materials are not able to purchase in time, and the downstream reflects the price of polyester cotton yarn less quickly. Many textile manufacturers are worried about losing money.

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Driven by unexpected events and the rise in international crude oil prices, the price of PTA has risen sharply in recent years. But with the partial restart of PTA devices and the weakening of demand for downstream polyester, the PTA market is facing adjustment next week. On the whole, the pattern of medium and long term TA surplus in PTA has not changed fundamentally. PTA will maintain a weak trend of shocks. The market outlook is concerned about PTA factory maintenance and downstream demand changes, and industrial customers can try to buy PX hedge PTA operation. Operational recommendations are mainly short air.

Reboot device is more, start up to nearly 70%. Demand side, polyester start up to 84%, weaving started at 80%, at present, PTA supply and demand tight state eased, in the micro to inventory stage. At the cost end, PX is equivalent to PTA cost of 5280 yuan (600 processing fee). At present, PTA dynamic processing fee is 500 yuan, PTA is driven by chemical industry in the short term to maintain high and volatile trend, and the middle line operation will continue to maintain more thinking. But we need to pay attention to the rhythm. At present, we wait and see, arbitrage waiting for more than 9 of 1 of the 91 Ping Shui, 1, and pay attention to the later stage of the operation of the PTA. TA1509 breaks down 5380 front-line support, and prices may be the next platform.

At present, crude oil is stable above US $55, which will give greater support to downstream products, but we should pay attention to the fact that the stock of crude oil is still high, and the possibility of a sharp rebound in the short term is less likely. At present, PTA has overhauled many devices, and its operating rate is only about 60%. The motive force for short-term PTA rise may come from this. We need to pay close attention to the start-up trend of the device. Downstream polyester and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms are experiencing a small peak in 3 and April, and demand is relatively strong at present. However, the PTA stock is currently up to 2 million 500 thousand tons, and it will take a while to go out of stock to curb the possibility of PTA's continuous rise.