Commodity Market Is Picking Up Enthusiasm And Cotton Market Goes To Stock Cycle.

Recently, it began in early April. commodity market The enthusiasm of the bottom is rising. The main contract of zhengmian rose from the lowest 12835 yuan / ton in April 7th to the highest 13610 yuan / ton in early May, with a cumulative increase of nearly 6%. In the long run, domestic cotton began to enter the inventory cycle from 2015/2016, and the possibility of price recovery is larger. But in the current year, the middle and lower cotton is overabundant and difficult to digest, and the real market is strong. If the contract is rebounded this year, it is expected that the height will be limited.

Futures market: low quality cotton throwing heavily.

According to the fiber inspection data of the Bureau of inspection and quarantine in 2013, 2013/2014 Xinjiang machine picked cotton More than 90% are in line with futures warehouse receipt standards, and 2014/2015 is also in line with the relevant standards. Although there are short boards with high short staple rate and poor strength, the market price is less than 500 to 1000 yuan per ton. However, due to the low demand for warehouse receipts, it is not very difficult to produce futures warehouse receipts from machine picked cotton, and the discount rate is also lower than the actual transaction level.

At the same quality level, low and medium quality cotton can be sold at a higher price in the futures market. According to Zheng Shang data, from April 7 cotton prices rose to the end of April, Zheng cotton warehouse receipts and effective forecast volume increased 388. If prices continue to rise, low and medium quality cotton will continue to flow into the futures market. According to the monitoring data of the national cotton monitoring system, as of April 30th, the national cotton processing rate was 94.9%, and the sales progress was only 63.7%. In Xinjiang, about 1 million 600 thousand tons of cotton had not yet been sold, of which the middle and low quality cotton accounted for the majority, and the spot selling pressure was larger.

Improvement of domestic cotton supply and demand in 2015/2016

According to the prediction of main organizations, China's cotton production in 2015/2016 is expected to be between 5 million 400 thousand and 5 million 900 thousand tons, and consumption is between 7 million 300 thousand and 7 million 950 thousand tons, and the end inventory is down 300 thousand to 950 thousand tons compared with 2014/2015. The overall supply and demand relationship has improved, and domestic cotton has entered the inventory cycle.

Because of the narrowing of domestic and foreign cotton prices and the high level of Chinese Enterprises Quality cotton Demand increases, ICE cotton has bottomed out. International cotton prices have risen steadily, and the power of large quantities of imported cotton has weakened. Import cotton is limited by quotas and has limited impact on the domestic market.

In addition, in accordance with the principle of "throwing away the market" by the state, even if 2015/2016 is sold, it will be sold at a competitive price, and it will be more likely to be thrown away at the beginning of the year or at the end of the year. Judging from the big cycle, cotton prices have entered the bottom up stage.

conclusion

To sum up, cotton prices have entered the bottom up stage, and there are many opportunities for next year's contracts. However, this year, the current cotton market pressure is still large, so this year's contract even if there is a rebound, the height is also limited, the future will not rule out the cotton futures once again callback to break the 13000 yuan / ton possibility.

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