Analysis Of Current Situation Of Foreign Trade In Textile And Garment Industry

1~4 months of this year

Cumulative exports fell by 2.7% over the same period last year, which has aroused strong concern in the industry.

What causes the export to decline year by year? How should we interpret the grim situation of the current foreign trade?

Growth in emerging markets is hard to pull the main market down

According to the relevant people of China Textile Import and Export Chamber of Commerce, the United States, Japan and the European Union are the three main market of China's textile and clothing exports, and also the most important driving force for export promotion.

And because the EU and Japan are continuously affected by the economic downturn, the market is sluggish, and consumers lack the willingness to consume, which makes importers no longer have a strong and strong desire to purchase.

The US market has recovered, and the exchange rate between us dollar and RMB is basically stable.

Exports showed relatively stable momentum.

As a result, the three main market is only supported by the US market. An example of image is "three legs with two folded".

As for emerging markets, although China has been expanding its efforts in developing emerging markets in recent years, and has made some achievements, the export increment of emerging markets represented by ASEAN, Brazil and Russia is not enough to offset the vacuum brought by the traditional market downturn.

Because of Russia's economic sanction, the market is also hard to satisfy.

The ASEAN countries, represented by Vietnam and Kampuchea, have seen rapid growth in exports and absorbed a large number of orders from the Chinese market.

As a whole, China's export market is undergoing structural changes.

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, in April this year, China's textile and apparel exports were 19 billion 880 million US dollars, down 16.3% compared to the same period last year. The total export volume of textiles and clothing in April was 79 billion 640 million US dollars, down 2.7% from the same period last year, of which 0.5% of textile exports and 4.2% of clothing exports.

After years of continuous export growth, people are accustomed to seeing two digit growth.

Industry analysts pointed out that in the past 10 years, China's textile exports are basically growing at a two digit rate, and China's unilateral share in the international market has also been rising.

According to WTO statistics, China's share of the total volume of international textile and clothing trade has increased from 10% 10 years ago to 37%.

With the rise of the export of ASEAN countries such as Vietnam and Kampuchea, China's share will grow at a low speed, and the space for continued growth will be very limited.

Is the turning point of trade export coming?

Before March of this year, China's textile and garment exports maintained a small increase after a great fluctuation.

Before March, China's textile and clothing exports totaled 59 billion 780 million US dollars, up 2.8% over the same period last year, down 14.2 percentage points from the growth rate in February.

Some analysts believe that the export volatility in the first quarter is affected by Holiday factors. Although the general trend can not be accurately judged, the industry's exports are facing greater pressure. The continued decline in April further settled this judgement.

Zheng Shaosan, vice president of Guangdong textile industry and Trade Group Co., Ltd. and Guangdong textile import and Export Group Co., Ltd. believes that the export situation of the entire textile and garment market is more severe than figures. From the whole international environment, the situation in other parts of the world is also very serious except that the American market is more prosperous.

In addition to the price of raw materials, the impact of exchange rate factors is the main cause, especially the appreciation of the RMB against the euro, making our exports to Europe more difficult.

Although the export enterprises are generally under great pressure, it is still too early to judge the turning point of China's textile and clothing export trade.

Analysts pointed out that at present, there are about 8 textile and garment export enterprises in China, and the total number of export enterprises is relatively large. Sustained and fierce international competition will win those enterprises with strong risk tolerance and comprehensive strength.

In the Canton Fair, which was just held in May, the growth of orders for large and dominant enterprises such as Su Da and Cathay still maintained 17%~20% growth.

As the market shuffle continues, orders will continue to concentrate on large and dominant enterprises, and the trend of market polarization will continue.

Whether it is an inflection point from the rise or fall of the export depends on the situation of 5~6 months, because 5~6 month is the delivery date of the summer product concentration.

Analysts also pointed out that the rise and fall of export volume is related to the fluctuation of textile raw material prices, and the decline of raw material prices represented by cotton is one of the factors of total export decline.

In addition, we should make a specific analysis according to the quantity changes of different categories of export products, thus judging whether the export inflection point is really coming.