Analysis Of Futures Dilemma Of Cotton And PTA Enterprises

In May 16th, the fifth futures market service entity economy 30 person forum hosted by the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange was held in Zhengzhou.

The theme of this forum is "the futures market serves the real economic development under the new normal", involving nearly 70 entities and more than 100 participants in the industrial chain of Zhengshang, which include

Hubei Baiyin cotton industry, Zawa Hirohito industry, Henan TongZhou cotton industry and so on.

Yisheng group, Xiang Lu petrochemical and so on.

The forum also includes relevant departments of the state ministries and commissions, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the settlement bank and futures business institutions.

In the 16 commodities listed on the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange, No. 1

And PTA (PTA) has always been an important breed, and these two varieties are also very important raw materials for China's textile industry and chemical fiber industry chain.

Especially in the context of the new market for cotton to be refined and the domestic PTA production capacity seriously overabundant, the majority of cotton enterprises and PTA enterprises will pay more attention to how to avoid and reduce business risks in the futures market by using hedging, spot price hedging and other functions.

At the meeting, the demonstration enterprises from the cotton textile, PTA, and methanol, glass and power coal industries, such as "Zhengdian" construction activities, introduced the successful experience of using futures market to avoid the risk of price fluctuation and stabilize production and operation.

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With the coming of mid May, the discussion on the trend of cotton has increased again, especially in recent years, and speculation about the dumping and storage has brought some uncertainties to the stable cotton prices.

How will the cotton market run in late May and even June?

What will be the effect of dumping? These days, more and more information about dumping and storage is heard, and we hear more and more confusion.

Dumping and storage are highly policy oriented and uncertain. Any speculation without sources is undesirable, especially when to throw, throw and price.

Therefore, the author thinks that some problems about throwing and storing can be considered more often.

It needs to be emphasized that many industries worry that throwing reserves will break the current cotton supply and demand pattern, which I think is certain.

But this can not be equated with changes in supply and demand, and prices will fall.

Just imagine, if the national cotton price is set at 15000 yuan / ton, do you think the current price is "hit down" or "pull up"? Therefore, sometimes we worry too much about some vague things.

Up to now, how much is the resources of Xinjiang cotton? According to the national cotton market monitoring system data, the total output of cotton in the whole country is about 6 million 510 thousand tons this year. Judging from the number of lint processed, publicly checked and warehousing, the total output of cotton in Xinjiang in 2014/15 is not less than 4 million 400 thousand tons.

As of mid May, the sales of cotton in Xinjiang had been completed by about 65%, that is to say, the commercial inventory of Xinjiang cotton was less than 440 * 0.35=154 million tons.

What's more, we need to pay attention to that the sale of hand picked cotton in Xinjiang this year is very fast. At present, it is difficult to find it in the market. Most of the rest are hand picked cotton and medium and low quality hand picked cotton.