Wanda Futures: Interpretation Of PTA Market In June 8Th

1, upstream raw materials: crude oil Brent from July to 63.31 (+51.28) US dollars / barrel; naphtha to 547.38 -16.37 (-16.37) US dollars / ton CFR Japan; Asia PXCFR to 915 (-10.0) CFR, PTA cost 5095 PTA (-47) yuan / ton, TA factory cash flow loss at 101 yuan / ton.

PXFOB- naphtha oil price difference at 347 US dollars per ton / ton, PX cash flow is in a high position; Fu Jia Dahua 1 million 400 thousand ton device has been restarted, South Korea HCP1#40 million tons of small device restart, 2#80 million tons delayed open, plus Sinopec in July or formally put into operation, PX supply increased.

2, PTA: from the inside to 4995 (-15), the spot price is -169 yuan / ton discount compared with the September contract, the difference between the 1-9 contract price is 186 yuan / ton, and the MEG inner plate to 7370 (+70) yuan / ton.

The 5 day Yisheng internal offer quoted at 5050 (-50) yuan / ton, Yisheng Hainan 2 million tons of equipment was overhauled ahead of schedule, the OPEC conference was about to convene, the market divergence was bigger, the turnover was 5070 yuan / ton (Cang Dan), and the lower was 4970 yuan / ton (spot).

3, polyester polyester: PTA and MEG regression shock, polyester factory quotes are stable, negotiable, downstream capital pressure is obvious, mindset is cautious, digestion hand inventory is the main.

On the 5 day, the market of polyester and silk in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was mostly 50-70%, last week.

In 70-130%, inventory is basically stable for 12-24 days.

4.

Operating rate: domestic PTA plant operating rate is 65.5 (+0)%, downstream polyester operation rate is 78.8 (-1.6)%, weaving load is 72 (0)%.

5, China Textile City (600790, stock bar) total

To 891 (+52) million meters, of which 643 of the long fiber cloth (+18) million meters, short fiber cloth into 248 (+34) million meters, gray fabric volume will gradually decline.

6, PTA inventory: PTA factory 3-4 (-0) days, polyester factory 3 (-0) days, Zhengshang warehouse warehouse + effective forecast is 149806 (-812) Zhang.

Personal point of view: the OPEC meeting decided to maintain the production limit of 30 million barrels per day. The output of shale oil in the United States dropped little. The pressure of international crude oil supply is still in the near future. In the near future, the demand season is strong, and the gasoline profits are better than aromatics. The equipment failure, short term PX supply is tight, and the Yisheng 2 million ton PTA plant maintenance makes the supply short and tight, and the PTA short line is too many.

But in the midline view, Fu Jia Dahua and South Korea HCP device restart, PX load slowly picked up, and downstream polyester polyester demand weakened, factory inventory rose, polyester load in June compared with May peak decline 7-8%, the demand for decline is higher than supply, and warehouse receipts continue to September cumulative, TA pressure.

The recent PTA interval is concerned about the trend of crude oil and the load of PTA industry chain.