"Ants Moving" Will Eventually Return.

Under the guidance of Gaosheng water, the PTA futures warehouse receipt keeps refreshing the record level.

In May, although some of the warehouse receipts were digested, the remaining warehouse receipts remained at historically high levels.

From the specific data, the May contract was due to deliver 69208 warehouse receipts, equivalent to 346 thousand tons of PTA goods.

In mid May, the total volume of futures warehouse receipts forecast was still 160 thousand. After deducting the total volume of 69 thousand deliveries in May, there are still more than 9 tons of warehouse receipts remaining, about 450 thousand tons PTA.

In addition, there are market speculation that warehouse receipts may appear "ants move."

Part of the May delivery should be the current arbitrage in May and September, that is, the warehouse receipt will be pferred to September contract after receiving the goods in May.

"In fact, from mid March, the price difference between 5 and September exceeded 160 yuan / ton.

A suitable organization is not only able to carry out arbitrage but also can not get it.

It also conducts direct operations in 5 and September on the disk, that is to say, part of the delivery volume of the contract in May may not enter the spot market directly, but will remain in the delivery repository and wait for the expiration of the September contract.

Wang Yuanyuan said.

Whether there will be a large number of deliveries on the September contract, market participants believe that on the one hand, it depends on whether the supply side will deteriorate. The first thing to consider is whether the new line of Xiang Lu can be opened up, which will play a decisive role in the digestion of warehouse receipts in the later stage.

From the results of this survey, it is considered that Xiang Lu can be regarded by both enterprises and investors.

The hope of opening up in June is very slim, so PTA may continue to maintain the relative balance between supply and demand in June.

At the same time, the September contract premium is expected to narrow, and the attraction of futures warehouse receipts will be weakened.

On the other hand, demand side polyester starts are expected to turn weak.

Although the start-up load of polyester factories is still at a very high level, there is no more bright spot for polyester downstream weaving.

Especially in the lower reaches of the PTA, the bottle industry will soon enter the traditional off-season, while the downstream demand for short fiber is not particularly optimistic. The demand side is not optimistic.

"From 6 to August, the weather is hot, limiting production and limiting electricity will restrict the operation of polyester, and the downloading load reduction is a big probability event. In September, the contract will still face certain stock pressure."

Insiders said.

In the view of Zhang De, the key to digest the PTA warehouse receipts in the late stage is to see the change of futures discount and the expectation of market participants to the market price.

At present, the "warehouse receipts boom" has gradually subsided, and the effect of the future market reservoir and pressure reducing valve is obvious.

No matter how to deduce the contract in September, it is the king of market.