PTA'S Value Center Is Constantly Improving.

Crude oil is still on the upward trend. OPEC will not cut production or increase production, which will not affect the original path of the market.

There are two main reasons for supporting the rise in crude oil prices: first, the US output will no longer continue to grow; two, low oil prices will stimulate demand and are the beginning of the peak season for global demand, and refineries will maintain a high level of crude oil processing.

The number of horizontal drilling in the United States has declined since December 2014, and is still in a downward trend.

From the top 1575 to the end of May 2015, 646 fell by 60%.

Crude oil production in the United States continued to grow before March 20, 2015, but remained stable at 9 million 400 thousand barrels per day after May 22nd. The output data in May 22nd was a sharp rise in data adjustment, rather than a real increase in output.

The US Department of energy's drilling report predicts that in the three quarter, shale oil output in the United States will remain at the current level, and the re production of output will need to stop after the drilling numbers begin to decline and begin to grow.

Refinery is the most direct demand side of crude oil.

This is still the time when refinery demand is rising.

From the end of May to the end of July, 3 million barrels / day refinery overhaul will be put into operation.

At the present stage, the gross profit of the world's main refinery centers is supported by the strong demand of low price crude oil and refined oil, and the gross profit of refinery is higher than that of the past two years.

This is another main reason for the high operating rate of refineries outside the seasonal peak season.

The high point of crude oil price is expected to appear in the three quarter.

The peak may reach $80 per barrel.

On the other hand, since the bankruptcy of a PTA plant with a capacity of 4 million tons in East China in March, the PTA market has been gradually bottoming up, and the explosion and parking of a comprehensive production enterprise in Southern China have made it possible.

The capacity to go out of the surplus pattern.

The author believes that at present, at least the phased capacity of PTA has been completed.

However, in addition to PTA's own capacity problem, PTA chain still has two bad points at this stage.

First, the loss of pet ends is serious.

Since 2015, supported by low price raw materials and slow growth of polyester production capacity, polyester start-up rate has been greatly improved and profits have steadily increased. Especially in 3 and April this year, the polyester end has reached a peak.

After entering May,

End production and sales fell sharply, inventory began to rise, the key is polyester profits fell to record lows.

This has led directly to the continuous decline of polyester operating rate, which means that the demand for PTA will also decline.

The two is the opening of a set of PX devices in our country.

In the early April, Tenglong aromatics lost 1 million 600 thousand tons of PX capacity from the market due to accidents.

But even so, the supply of PX in Asia is also excessive. In 4 and May, the import volume of PX in China increased obviously enough to make up for the lack of domestic supply.

By the end of June, the 2 million PX device of CICC was officially opened, which means that the supply of PX will increase by 16%.

This will put pressure on PX prices in Asia.

At present, the price difference between PX and naphtha is US $350 / ton, and there is still room for compression.

In short, the PTA industry chain has many factors, and it may continue to oscillate in a short time.