Downstream Demand Declined, PX Prices Fell Slightly

Near July, the Gulf of Mexico entered the hurricane season, affecting the production of refineries in the southern United States, and the supply of crude oil will drop.

In terms of consumption, when the peak season is coming, the consumption of refined oil will increase and demand will support oil prices.

In addition, PX prices fell slightly due to lower demand.

As of June 15th, PX Korea FOB newspaper closed at $916 / ton, down 25 US dollars / ton from the same period last month, or 2.66%.

China's PX relies heavily on imports and profits decline, resulting in overhaul of PX devices in Asia.

fpcc

The device is scheduled to stop in mid July for routine maintenance.

The crude oil market not only ushered in the peak season of consumption, but also ushered in the hurricane weather. Under these two factors, crude oil prices tend to rise and fall.

And,

Supply is declining.

Under the action, prices will remain strong.

As the cost increases, the price of PTA will shift upward.

The supply and demand pattern of PTA will improve in July.

First, when crude oil enters the peak season of consumption, the supply of PX will fall, and the cost will support the shift of the PTA price center.

Second, there are overhaul plans for the three major PTA production enterprises, and the PTA inventory of enterprises is at a low level, and its supply has entered a relatively short period.

Third, downstream inventory is at a low level, which may stimulate polyester enterprises to replenishment, thereby boosting PTA demand.

In general, under the combined effect of the above three factors, the PTA price in July is expected to hit bottom, and the operation can be backed by 5000 yuan / ton.

Related links:

On Tuesday (June 16th), PTA futures opened up and down the previous day, ending the trend of "three successive Yin".

At the close, PTA futures contract of 1509 yuan was 5094 yuan / ton, up 26 yuan / ton or 0.51%.

The contract was traded 1 million 566 thousand times a day, with a total reduction of 22 thousand hands.

Some analysts said that yesterday's trading volume was relatively enlarged earlier, indicating that the enthusiasm of fund participation was high. The recent stock market adjustment did not exclude some funds from entering the commodity sector.

On the spot, JOYOU information data show that Tuesday PTA market rose slightly, futures TA1509 shocks closed Yang, spot prices stable small rise, trading atmosphere flat.

Because crude oil prices rebounded intraday, pushing up PTA futures prices, but helpless at present, the market demand is low, polyester factories are mostly based on contract PTA, purchasing PTA on spot is negative, so even if PTA prices rise, buyers also lack enthusiasm.

At present, the operation rate of PTA units in China is 70%, and the downstream polyester plant has a starting rate of about 79%. The PTA theory is slightly bigger than the demand, and the production and marketing of polyester factories are flat, and the theoretical production is in a loss. The polyester plant operation rate is easy to fall and difficult to rise at the later stage, and the PTA just needs to continue to fall.

At present, the market mentality is empty, cost support but weak demand. It is expected that the short-term PTA market will fluctuate slightly.

Downstream, due to the weakness of domestic consumption and exports of textile and clothing, the inventory of weaving and bomb products has increased a lot. The boot has continued to decline, and the overall elasticity and weaving start up to 77% and 70% respectively.

In particular, the early performance of the Taicang and Changxin bombs increased significantly.

Last week, Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester production and sales in the vicinity of 7-8, polyester stocks small increase.

As of last Friday, the POY, FDY and DTY stocks of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester factories were in 16.7 days, 20.5 days and 23.6 days respectively.

For the aftermarket, Huatai futures analyst Cheng Lin believes that overall, the current crude oil is still strong shocks, naphtha and PX follow high, part of the PX device because of profit reasons negative, PTA costs have some support.

According to Yisheng Hainan's latest news, this week's PTA device load will rise to around 70% and return to oversupply.

Downstream polyester stocks are rising, losses are increasing, demand is weak, and load will continue to decline. Overall, the cost side is slightly stronger, consumption continues to be weak, PTA supply rises and stocks are abundant, prices will remain weak.

Later, it concerns whether crude oil can break through the consolidation interval, PTA current price differentials and delivery stock inventory in and out.