The Bull Market Is Going To Be Quiet. After The Stock Is Equity.

　　 The "June change" of China's stock market

In June, things are changing. In a word, the SFC is still responsible for "slow", but the central bank is not responsible for "cattle". For a month, the central bank has been on the sidelines of monetary policy. Although the bull market still has the second half, the opportunity to make money is only 1/4. The golden age of stocks is coming to an end. stock right The golden age is coming.

Since the beginning of this year, there has been a widespread saying in the stock market: the SFC is responsible for "slow" and the central bank is responsible for "cattle".

When the stock market suffered from "mad cow disease" in April and May, every weekend, the CSRC issued some cooling measures such as "expansion" or "two checks", while the central bank also announced that it would reduce the interest rate and reduce interest rates. These practices seem to be contradictory, but they are in fact a combination.

In June, things are changing. In a word, things are changing. SFC Still responsible for "slow", but the central bank is not responsible for "cattle". For a month, the central bank has been on the sidelines of monetary policy.

Why? First, the widely anticipated reduction and reduction of interest rates were silent; second, as of June 23rd, the central bank suspended the counter repurchase market for nineteenth consecutive times in the open market, which meant that the central bank suspended liquidity injection into the market. Third, the central bank also directed directed repo to some institutions, with a total operation volume of over 100 billion yuan, which is a direct recovery of liquidity. Fourth, at least not all of the central bank's last week's maturity of about 670 billion yuan MLF (medium-term loan facility), which is equivalent to the recovery of liquidity.

Before the market opened on Tuesday, the four major securities commentaries also published comments on the stock market. One important argument is that the central bank has not fallen into wait-and-see and has not stopped easing. But in June 24th, a Xinhua article entitled "the direction of the central bank's monetary policy is" loose "or" tight ". The article clearly states that many people in the industry believe that monetary easing is still necessary, but the space may be narrowed.

In June 25th, members of the financial times expert group said that there might not be any big moves in the near future. This month there is no possibility of a rate cut or a drop in accuracy. Earlier, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of central bank in Washington, declined to comment on whether China would continue to cut interest rates.

Therefore, yesterday (June 25th), the stock market has been in a two day rally after a sharp fall, it is inevitable. The central bank that is responsible for "cattle" has lost its voice, and the SFC is slow to exert its strength. Therefore, the adjustment must continue, and there is no possibility of going out of the V shape reversal on the Japanese K-line.

Why did the central bank get into a wait-and-see situation? Because China's economy is showing signs of improvement. First, foreign exchange accounted for two months in a row, showing a slowdown in capital outflow; second, real estate sales in May showed the first positive growth in 15 months; third, HSBC June PMI index rose, showing that the manufacturing situation has improved; fourth, the market interest rate continued to go down, even the annual yield of the balance treasure also fell below 4%; fifth, there is signs of easing market liquidity, and even the banks have taken the initiative to require the central bank to recover liquidity.

Of course, these signs also indicate that they rely solely on monetary policy The stimulus to the real economy is decreasing, and a lot of money goes to the stock market, not the factories. Therefore, the next step will be to adopt more precise fiscal and industrial policies.

The central bank's "June wait-and-see" has some components of monetary policy reflection and further observations on the improvement of the real economy. Of course, there is also a component of caution against stock market risks. In other words, the central bank and the securities and Futures Commission now want the stock market to "slow down".

So the mad cow died on the stock market. One of the top priorities for investors is to leverage, that is, to borrow money from stocks, and second, to keep away from other stocks, such as growth enterprise market, sub stock market and excessive growth. Third, slow down the mentality and look for opportunities in the concepts of Finance and SOE reform.

My personal judgement is that although the bull market still has the second half, the opportunity to make money is only 1/4. The golden age of stock is ending and the golden age of equity is coming. What is equity? It is upstream stock, IPO and IPO stock, or called. Original stock 。