ACP Negotiations Fail, PX Price And Profit Squeeze Space

Recent Greek farce has been deadlocked, and the political gaming risk in the euro zone has increased.

China's HSBC PMI data in June was 49.4, less than expected 49.6.

The continued improvement in US economic data is on the market.

In September, the interest rate increase is expected to be stronger. The US dollar index showed a trend of upward oscillation after the two probe of the 95 integer pass, which further brought pressure on the crude oil market.

On the other hand, the situation of international crude oil supply and demand has not seen a marked improvement.

As of June 19th, the US crude oil output remained at a high level of 9 million 604 thousand barrels per day, increasing from 9 million 430 thousand barrels per day in May.

Iraq's crude oil output in June reached 4 million 388 thousand barrels per day, the highest level in history, boosting OPEC6 crude oil output to 32 million 134 thousand barrels per day for three years.

Later, the Iran nuclear talks were postponed. In view of the strong willingness of all parties to reach a nuclear agreement, it is expected that the final nuclear sanctions against Iran will be abolished and Iran crude oil inflow will be pushed forward.

International crude oil market

There is still plenty.

The peak season for US crude oil seasonal demand will be over. Sufficient supply will reverse the decline of US crude oil inventory for two consecutive months. Therefore, the international crude oil market will face double pressures of rising US dollar index and loose supply and demand in the later stage.

At the end of June, the cash flow of the PTA factory deteriorated rapidly. In the case of the difficulty in pferring the polyester off-season costs, the PTA plant had to make profits to the upstream PX. Therefore, in the context of the divergence between buyers and sellers, the PX ACP negotiations in July failed again.

At present, the PX link still has a production profit of 72 US dollars / ton. Under the pattern of the polyester terminal demand in the low season from 7 to August, the rate of PTA plant starts to decline along with polyester, and PX demand will gradually become weaker. The new 1 million 600 thousand ton PX installation of Sinopec is expected to start at the end of July, which will increase the downward adjustment pressure of PX price and profit.

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In response to the Chinese government's formal announcement of 1 million tonnes of national cotton reserves in July, the Southeast Asian yarn and domestic cotton yarn traders in India, Pakistan and Vietnam showed a relatively calm performance. They believed that the impact on the import and export yarn Market in terms of quantity and price would not be much or even ignored.

A large cotton yarn export company in India believes that China will not have an impact on the market at the current market price, but if the price is substantially lower than the current market price and does not depend on the actual life and quality of cotton reserves, it will bring downward pressure on cotton prices.

Because the overall quality of China's cotton reserves is low, most of the cotton thrown out is not suitable for spinning knitting yarn or high quality woven yarn, so it will not affect the price of high quality yarn, but the price of low-grade yarns may be under pressure.

Overall, cotton yarn prices will remain basically stable.

　　其一、目前港口已清關2014/15年度已清關印度棉S-6的成交價僅13400-13600元/噸，拋儲價明顯高于現貨，對印度棉、西非棉、巴基斯坦棉等是利好;其二、中國紡企關注和競拍的重點將是2012年度國儲外棉(有傳言100%美棉)和少量2011年度國儲棉，前者品級、品質比較好，相對于目前市場可供的貨源而言有“一致性高，纖維長度長和強力較好”等賣點;后者拋儲價格低，適合紡C32S及以下支數棉紗，而印度棉S-6等級、品質則與2011年國儲棉、2012年度國儲美棉“錯位”，紡紗品質介入“中等偏上”，在這一領域中國市場印巴、越南棉紗仍具較強競爭力;其三、由于印度棉紗供貨訂單大多提前30-45天簽訂，合同價格、數量以及抵港交貨時間早已確定;從鄭期近月合約以及外棉現貨的表現來看，對于即將到來的100萬噸拋儲大多“橫盤”冷對，紗線合同調整的可能性不大。

According to the analysis of the exporters, the Chinese government has set up a dumping price of more than 500 yuan / ton above the spot market, which is likely to trigger an overall rise in the price of the new cotton, the real estate cotton and the port has cleared the outside cotton quotas. On the one hand, the profits of the cotton yarn will continue to decline and the rate of starting up will decline. The import and export of imported yarn such as India and Pakistan will increase. On the other hand, India CCI still has a stock of about 1100000 tons, but the left behind storage time is less than 3 months. The average monthly turnover will be about 300000 tons before the new cotton market will be "light". So the more time is pushed back, the greater the pressure of CCI throwing and storing will be, and the sharp decline of the reserve price will be inevitable in the 7-10 months. India, Pakistan, Indonesia and other countries