Four Big Bad Pressure To Suppress The Weak Rebound In The Market

Four bad profits or down the stock index downward, adjust the stock exchange urgently, it is precisely under these four bad pressures to suppress, the market will soon be in trouble. Therefore, we should be short of the short term rebound, the rebounding volume, the loose chips and the low performing stocks.

On Monday, the market took a downward trend on Friday and fell sharply below 4000 points. Despite many attempts to regain land lost in the market, under the four big negative pressure, the market rebounded less strongly and the differentiation rate of stocks increased further.

Investors in

Under the differentiation of weak and individual stocks, it is urgent to adjust the stock and convert shares.

At present, the four major negative effects of repressing the stock index rebound are: first, the Fed's interest rate expectations are strong, and the external stock market crash has led to the sharp opening of the stock market, which has led to a lot of popularity. Secondly, IMF urged China to withdraw from the rescue measures. Under the failure of market confidence, IMF's push to a certain extent suppressed many kinetic energy. Thirdly, the price of pork rose or pulled up CPI to 3%, and monetary policy or dilemma kept down the stock index. Finally, in July, the initial value of PMI in China's finance and manufacturing industry was 48.2, the former value was 49.4, and the expected 49.7.

It is precisely under these four negative pressures that the big market will soon be in trouble. Therefore, we should face up to the shortage of stocks in the short term, rebounding, loose chips and poor performance.

In the face of five heavy profits, the market will avoid excessive sensitivity to the air crash.

However, in the face of policy, the stock index pullback is also an opportunity to change positions. Especially for those who are in line with the operation of industrial capital and emerging industries of strategic importance, I can change stocks into staunch stocks, such as the following three main lines.

1, favorable to the expansion of the charging pile industry speed.

The construction of charging piles is not only conducive to the construction of new energy vehicles, but also an important focus of steady growth. The implementation guidelines and policies are clear, and the implementation of charging network and charging piles is expected to accelerate.

2, summer box office blowout, as of July 26th, the total box office in 2015 has reached 24 billion 800 million.

The popularity of the pilgrimage to the pilgrimage to the West indicates that the spring of IP has arrived.

The consumption space of domestic cultural industry is still large, and it is worth continuing to pay attention to the film and television media industry.

3, the number of Beidou satellites has increased again, and the localization rate has been greatly improved.

It is understood that in 2020, the scale of China's satellite navigation industry will exceed 400 billion, and the military market will exceed 20 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of about 17%.

Military industry is the most hot market in recent market.

On the whole, under the above four big bad pressure, the market is going down again on Monday, but the 10 day average line support is also more obvious.

Therefore, at present, we should not panic any more. Instead, we should strengthen our confidence in stocks, especially for the three main lines above, and the new stocks that have been settled in the new capital increase. We will be more bold to adjust the stock exchange as the market pullbacks.

Private placement: to bid farewell to the "most panic time" rebound will not happen overnight.

The 12 trading day,

The largest rebound in the region 24.04%! After the multi department joint rescue, A shares rose to the forefront of the 3373.54 points, rebounded all the way to the highest 4184.45 points in the intraday market last Friday, but the tail ended in a series of worries. The A share market once again faced the direction of choice.

In this past month's extreme market, the private placement of "absolute return" has also undergone a test of human nature of ice and fire.

Faced with the market of post disaster reconstruction, private sector's short-term differences are also increasing. Some people think that the most panic has passed, and others think that the road of rebound will still be "crawling forward".

Optimist: the most panic time has passed.

"We believe that the time when the market is most panic has passed and is being pferred to the post disaster reconstruction characterized by the regional arrangement."

Last Friday's closing, Yang Ling, President of star stone, first conveyed its views on the market. Judging from the valuation, real economy liquidity and economic prospects, she believed that the market was still in a bull market.

In Yang Ling's view, the collapse of the past month has made the "golden pit" of valuation begin to appear, which means that the overall market price earnings ratio has dropped significantly, and the valuation of the future can be fixed.

In particular, the valuation of financial stocks is still lower than the historical average, while the valuation of cyclical stocks, growth stocks and consumer stocks is further down to the historical average level.

Coincidentally, Keynes, chairman of Beijing's great master Zhi Meng investment, is also optimistic about the market outlook.

He told reporters that although the stock market fell again last Friday, there was no panic on the whole, but more on the spot market caused by the futures dive.

"After the emergence of six successive days in the big market, a day's decline did not change the overall upward trend of the stock market."

Keynes believes that from the technical indicators, the stock index has broken through the neck line 4000 points, the "head shoulder bottom" form is very obvious, so we should continue to look at the high line - short term stock index rebound target is 4381 points.

"We believe that the bull market base has not wavered, and the market outlook is optimistic."

As a representative of the optimist in private placement, Yang Ling believes that the "market bottom" is gradually taking shape, and the second half will be the "bull" and "performance bull" jointly promoted the long Niu Niu Niu pattern.

The bull market trend has not changed, and has not been blinded by fear.

First of all, large class asset allocation pfer, reform and economic pformation and upgrading are the basis of the current bull market. The plunge is the concentrated catharsis of the mood after the sharp rise, which is overstepped by the leverage paction, which has not shaken the foundation of the bull market.

The two quarter GDP year-on-year growth rate of 7% in June and 6.8% in the same period of the year were better than expected in the market. The macro-economy has stabilized and picked up. The second half of this year will recover moderately, and the second half of the bull market driven by performance has already begun.

Second, the CPI rose by 1.3% in June compared with 4.8% in the same period last year, and the pressure on the downward and deflation of the economy is still significant. The policy objective of steady growth needs the cooperation of the loose monetary policy. PPI

At the same time, the Fed's rate hike is expected to increase. If the Federal Reserve increases interest rates, short-term capital return may reduce market liquidity. This will also encourage China to adopt loose monetary policy to cope with it.

Thirdly, the strategic position of capital market remains unchanged.

The goal of capital market in China plays an important role in guiding economic restructuring and reducing leverage.

China's economy has entered a new normal. Therefore, there must be a matching capital market to support it. The stock market is a very important part of the capital market.

Prudent faction: the road of rebound crawls forward

Review the market trend last week, it can be described as twists and turns.

On Monday, news of the withdrawal of the money from the rescue market caused a sharp drop in the intraday market, and the market rose again after the SFC rumbled in the afternoon.

After Tuesday's sharp opening, the market was exploded with pork prices, highways and other factors.

On Thursday, after the clarification of the certification company, the market rose, but on Friday it dived again.

"The sharp fluctuations in the market last week is a portrayal of market sentiment and strong short-term speculative atmosphere. There is still pressure for adjustment in the short term."

Shennong investment general manager Chen Yu believes that the logic of the recent market rebound is that the rescue fund has hedged the liquidity crisis in the early stage, but there is still adjustment pressure in the short term.

"The collapse started from a crazy rise and ended with a frenzy of falling."

Reflecting on the deep adjustment and rescue of the market in the past month, Chen Yu once again came to understand the old saying: "disaster, happiness depends on it."

In his view, the stock market craziness from last year to now has foreshadowed the collapse.

Then, how does the market go? Chen Yu is short on the short term. His reason is that the market urgently needs to repair three aspects: valuation, leverage, supervision.

"Even if it has dropped so much, the gem has increased by 89% this year. If the valuation goes back to a reasonable track, the return of the gem index to the 1700-1800 point is not too surprising."

For the sharp fall in the market in the afternoon of Friday, Wu Guoping, chairman of Yu Rong investment in Guangdong, cautiously believes that the road to rebound will crawl forward.

"The stock index has continued to attack upside down, and has accumulated a huge profit margin, and there is also a lot of resistance on top of the index 4200, and the road to rebound will be relatively tortuous."

He said.

However, Wu Guoping believes that although the index rebound is difficult to achieve overnight, but the stock market is still very exciting, and how to find "killed by mistake", at the same time valuations are relatively reasonable good stocks, is placed in front of these sunshine private equity fund manager of a "technology live".

"The theme of military industry and state-owned enterprise reform has been making continuous efforts. From the beginning of the rebound to today, it is undoubtedly the main line of the current market.

Therefore, if we want to continue the rebound, we must rely on their strength.

Wu Guoping said that the theme of reform in the future military industry and state-owned enterprises can still be expected, and the opportunity for resource stocks to increase inflation is also worth noting.

Turning to next week's strategy, Wu Guoping revealed that the price difference should be properly made next week. If adjustments are made, we can consider adding the right position.

At the present stage, the best operation strategy is to do more smoothly, but the position should not be too radical. After all, the main market is really radical.

Despite the short term "bearish" of the stock indexes, Chen Yu did not believe that A shares entered the "bear market" mode. He believes that China's stock market is in a strong long-term upward trend. This trend consists of three parts: dreams, asset securitization, and entrepreneurial innovation.

"If long-term bullish and short-term market fall, is it good or bad for investors? There are not many good companies that can make big money, but is it cheap or good?" Chen Yu asked. If you believe in the Chinese dream and agree to the trend of asset securitization, you will be concerned about the wave of entrepreneurship in full swing.

The short-term adjustment brought by this market can be regarded as a gift from heaven.

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Quantity can restrain the height of rebound.

Undertake the previous rebound trend.

Last week, the focus of the operation continued to rise, and the Shanghai stock index once stood on 4100 points. Although there is no lack of hot spots in the market, the confidence in the overall confidence of the market is limited, and the weight blue chip sector is hard to sustain.

In short term, the 4100-4300 point area still has a larger back pressure before the volume can be effectively enlarged.

Judging from the performance of last week's market, after the previous general rally, the trend of the various sectors began to show obvious differentiation, and the difference of the operation style between the big and medium market capitalization varieties began to appear.

After the fund was put into operation, there was no more money to catch up with, which made it difficult for the financial blue chip sector to have bigger market, and the contribution to the index became very limited. It only played a role in protecting the plate and blocking down the space. On the other hand, there were more local hot spots in the medium and small market capitals, including the activity of raw poultry breeding stimulated by the rapid ascending of the pork price, and the high speed plate that was stimulated by the extension of the toll period of the expressway. The plate shares of the Xian Tan share, Sheng Nong development, Sichuan Chengyu and Jiangxi Guangdong high-speed railway increased significantly, and the plates such as shipbuilding, oil and gas reform, and coal were also strong, which provided the market with more powerful kinetic energy. On the one hand, insurance, banking and other financial sectors are relatively stable.

However, it needs to be pointed out that the emergence of hot spots is more from short-term stimulus of news or policy, and the sustainability of its rise and the impetus to other sectors need further observation. The current money making effect and plate effect of the disk are not strong, which means that the willingness of OTC funds to continue to enter the market has not yet been fully upgraded.

From the quantity performance, we can see that the two cities' daily capacity level is always hovering at 11000 billion level. In the case of further enlargement, the difficulty of the index will continue to increase.

The rapid fall in the early stage is mainly for the liquidation of the financing leveraged funds, and after the index falls to 3400 points, this goal has basically reached. In the future market, the use of leverage funds will tend to be rational. From the current changes in the financing balance, it is also possible to find that the probability of a rapid rise in the early stage of capital promotion is not large in the short and medium term, which indicates that the focus of the market will gradually return to the basic macroeconomic factors.

The newly released macroeconomic data show that the economic growth in the first half of the year is 7%. Before the emerging industries have been fully formed, the problems of real estate downlink and overcapacity in the traditional industries continue to perplex the operation of the economy. CPI, PPI and other data also show that the current economic situation is facing an embarrassing situation of shrinking demand. Under the circumstances of the prolonged stock cycle, the downward pressure on the economy is still large. For A shares, it may still need further consolidation to digest the negative effects.

From the technical point of view, the upper pressure formed by multiple technical resonances can not be underestimated.

The previous high point 5178 points and the latest low 3373 points interval were the golden section ratio, and the positions of 0.382 points and 0.5 points were 0.382 points and 4275 points respectively. The probability that the stock index rebounded rapidly through these pressure zones was smaller. Secondly, the same area was divided by the Gann angle line, and the position of the 1:3 track was around 4250 points. With the current average of 20 days, half line and other mid long term average lines, it basically converged in the 4100-4300 point area, and virtually increased the force of suppression. Finally, from the short-term trend, the MACD index of the 30 minute and 60 minute level of the Shanghai stock index showed a certain deviation from the top, so that it was inevitable that the index could be repaired by a certain fall. First, take

Without the stimulation of new external positive forces, the rebound space at the top has begun to become more limited. In the near future, it is more likely to show a two dip and further consolidate the bottom trend.

On the other hand, it is suggested that the investors should keep a cautious attitude, control the position in the semi warehouse, and adjust the warehouse structure actively. On the one hand, from the standpoint of performance, we can reduce the lack of performance support in the process of bounce back in time. At the same time, we should focus on the growth of half a year report to clear the plate of medicine and environmental protection. On the other hand, the dips are divided into new industries, such as biological and intelligent machines by long line thinking.