Cotton Supply And Demand Is Expected To Further Escalate

According to the national cotton market monitoring system data, in 2014, the national cotton sowing area reached 64 million 98 thousand mu, and the total output was 6 million 621 thousand tons. In 2015, the total sown area of cotton in the whole country reached 51 million 189 thousand mu, a decrease of 12 million 909 thousand mu compared with that of the previous year, a decrease of 20.1%. If this decline is calculated, domestic cotton output will be about 5 million 300 thousand tons in 2015, plus the import tariff quota of 894 thousand tons of cotton in China, and the domestic cotton supply and demand gap will be only around one million tons (cotton related industry expects that domestic cotton demand will be 700-750 million tons in 2015).

Recently, there has been an interesting phenomenon in the cotton circles. When someone throws out the purchase intention, there are many respondents, and all kinds of cotton resources have everything, and the situation of domestic cotton supply exceeds demand is self-evident. The domestic cotton market is still not optimistic in the second half of 2015, and the contradiction between supply and demand of cotton is expected to further upgrade.

The consequence of oversupply of cotton in China is the weak operation of cotton market. From 2014 Unginned cotton In the case of takeover, the cost of the initial acquisition cost is 14500 yuan / ton, plus interest and warehousing costs at the end of the year. The painful lessons of last year will make cotton enterprises more cautious in the beginning of this year's scale, and the possibility of reducing prices in the early stage is very great.

It is reported that in 2015, the cotton area in Xinjiang was mostly low yield fields and sub suitable cotton fields. As at the end of July, cotton growth in Xinjiang autonomous region or corps was better than last year. If the weather conditions are normal in the late period, Xinjiang's cotton output will have a bumper harvest. Therefore, this year's domestic cotton production will decrease less than the area, and the gap between supply and demand will be further reduced.

A cotton trader said that as of now, the number of domestic cotton remaining in 2014 may be 140-160 tons. At present, the downstream textile industry has entered the off-season industry, and the demand for cotton is limited. It is estimated that when the new cotton comes into the market, the surplus of cotton in 2014 will still be close to million tons. According to the Cotton Spinning Association's prediction, the current domestic Cotton yarn Import volume has increased rapidly. This year, domestic cotton yarn imports will exceed 2 million tons, which is weak for domestic demand. Cotton market It's a heavy punch.

In addition, there are about 10000000 tons of cotton reserves in the country, which is not satisfactory in terms of the turnover of cotton reserves in July. As of July 30th, a total turnover of 32986 tons has been achieved. At this rate, the turnover of tens of thousands of tons in two months can not reach the target of keeping the rational stock of national cotton reserves, so the 2015 cotton reserve plan is likely to continue. At that time, the contradiction between supply and demand of cotton will become more prominent.