Global Cotton Market Difficult To Change High Inventory Status Quo

Despite the decline in the area of cotton planting in the world, the supply pressure of cotton market in 2015/2016 has not been reduced under the hedging of raising per mu yield and decreasing the rate of abandonment.

China's cotton producing areas are also facing these risks.

The global demand and demand forecast for July released by the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) considers that the global cotton planting area in July is expected to be 31 million 300 thousand hectares, down 6% from the same period last year. However, it has benefited from a decline in the rate of abandoned cultivation and a slight increase in the yield per unit area.

The negative impact of reduced production is partially offset.

At the same time, it is estimated that the world's cotton production is 23 million 900 thousand tons, a decrease of 9% compared with the same period last year. It is estimated that the global cotton consumption will be 24 million 900 thousand tons, an increase of 2% over the same period last year.

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The gap reached 1 million tons, but due to the estimated global cotton ending inventory in 2014/2015, 21 million 900 thousand tons, an increase of 9% over the same period, and the inventory consumption ratio of 90%. So in 2015/2016, the global stock still has 20 million 900 thousand tons, down only 5% from the same period last year.

USDA's forecast is more pessimistic. It was global in July.

According to the production and demand report, China's cotton inventories will increase by 544 thousand tons in 2015/2016, which will stimulate the global stock market to increase by about 400000 tons at the end of the year, due to the decrease in cotton consumption and the significant increase in the amount of chemical fiber and imported yarn.

The Greek debt crisis and the expected increase in the US dollar interest rate rate have led to a sharp setback in the domestic cotton futures price. Although the market has digested the systemic risk, the 1601 contract of Zheng Mian futures is still maintaining a weak trend in the face of the pressure of domestic and foreign cotton supply and the low consumption. The price of the futures contract is narrowly arranged in the range of 12600 yuan to 12800 yuan / ton.

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Cotton yarn imports increased significantly in June.

Imports of India, Pakistan and Vietnam yarn are the top.

In June, 193 thousand and 600 tons of imported cotton yarn, an increase of 37.64% over the same period, showed a continuous surge.

Among them, imports from India amounted to 48 thousand tons, an increase of 46.98%, from Vietnam to 47 thousand and 400 tons, an increase of 56.93%, from Pakistan to import 40 thousand and 700 tons, an increase of 20.98%.

According to statistics from Vietnam and Pakistan related departments, Vietnam exported 83 thousand tons of cotton yarn in June, an increase of 14.32%, and Pakistan exported 50 thousand and 300 tons, an increase of 11.7%.

However, according to port traders, the quality of imported yarn has generally slowed down recently, and the quality problem is more prominent, which requires importers and textile companies to pay attention.

According to customs statistics, China's textile and apparel exports in June amounted to 25 billion 350 million US dollars, down 1.16% compared to the same period last year, and the decline was narrowed.

Among them, clothing decreased by 3.1%, and textile increased by 2.25%.

In June, imports and exports of textiles and clothing increased by 2 billion 210 million, up 0.78% from the same period last year, except for the first time in February, with 5.87% growth in clothing and 0.71% in textiles.

From the export market, in June, the EU continued to decline, exports of US $5 billion 583 million, down by 8.3%; exports to Japan declined in depth, exports were US $1 billion 396 million, the decline was 13.67%; exports to ASEAN declined and exports increased by US $2 billion 872 million, a slight increase of 4.11%; exports to Hongkong decreased by US $1 billion 139 million, down by 27.51%; exports to the United States increased, exports 4 billion 709 million US dollars, an increase of 16.58%.

From the perspective of export products, there are three main characteristics. First, the export volume of fabrics is getting warmer, and the export of yarn and clothing continues to decline.

In June, the export volume of yarn decreased by 2.44% compared with the same period last year, while clothing decreased by 5.54%, and the fabric grew by 7.67% compared with the same period last year. It has been growing for 2 consecutive months.

Two, the export volume of textile products increased slightly, and prices continued to fall slightly.

It is estimated that textile exports in June increased by 2.25% over the same period, the number increased by 2.57%, and the price dropped by 0.32%.

Three, the export of cotton products decreased, and the exports of chemical fiber products continued to increase slightly.

For example, in June, the export of cotton yarn decreased by 15.16% compared with that of the previous year, and cotton cloth decreased by 0.13% and cotton clothing decreased by 11.99%.

And chemical fiber fabrics grew by 7.14% compared to the same period, chemical fiber clothing increased by 0.05%, and chemical fiber yarn decreased by 2.05%.