China Light Textile City: Filament Fabric Weak Decline

This week,

The 14 category of long silk cloth sales volume dropped slightly compared with last week, and increased over the same period last week.

Over the past week, due to the high temperature, the number of customers in the market has decreased, and spot and cash pactions are less than last week.

Long silk cloth spot paction is less than last week, the order delivery also slightly declined compared with last week, the marketing continued to stabilize, now fell, the sample and the trial order were maintained, the overall marketing activity slightly weakened compared with the previous week, the new trial sales increased, but not much.

In terms of domestic demand, wholesalers in the two tier market were reduced.

In the second half of the year, the enthusiasm of the new single trial was not reduced, and the demand for goods returned to the stock market continued to decrease, and the total volume of domestic demand was slightly less than that of last week.

In terms of foreign trade, foreign exchange continued last week, and export varieties basically maintained.

Direct paction and order delivery continued last week.

Foreign trade is more diffuse, only scattered and intermittent pactions, the overall foreign trade marketing basically maintained last week's amplitude;

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Despite the decline in the area of cotton planting in the world, the supply pressure of cotton market in 2015/2016 has not been reduced under the hedging of raising per mu yield and decreasing the rate of abandonment.

China's cotton producing areas are also facing these risks.

The global demand and demand forecast for July released by the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) considers that the global cotton planting area in July is expected to be 31 million 300 thousand hectares, down 6% from the same period last year. However, it is partly offset by the decrease in the rate of abandoned cultivation and the slight increase in yield per unit area.

At the same time, it is estimated that the world's cotton production is 23 million 900 thousand tons, a decrease of 9% compared with the same period last year. It is estimated that the global cotton consumption will be 24 million 900 thousand tons, an increase of 2% over the same period last year.

Although the gap between production and demand reached 1 million tons, but due to the estimated global cotton ending inventory in 2014/2015, it was 21 million 900 thousand tons, an increase of 9% over the same period, and the inventory consumption ratio of 90%. Therefore, by the year of 2015/2016, the global stock still has 20 million 900 thousand tons, down only 5% from the same period last year.

USDA's forecast is more pessimistic. In its July global cotton production and demand report, it said that China's cotton inventories will increase by 544 thousand tons in the 2015/2016 year, as a result of the decrease in China's cotton consumption and the significant increase in the amount of chemical fiber and imported yarn. This will stimulate the global end market stock to increase by about 400000 tons.

The Greek debt crisis and the expected increase in the US dollar interest rate rate have led to a sharp setback in the domestic cotton futures price. Although the market has digested the systemic risk, the 1601 contract of Zheng Mian futures is still maintaining a weak trend in the face of the pressure of domestic and foreign cotton supply and the low consumption. The price of the futures contract is narrowly arranged in the range of 12600 yuan to 12800 yuan / ton.