It Is Estimated That China'S Cotton Stocks Will Increase By 544 Thousand Tons In 2015/2016.

Despite the decline in the area of cotton planting in the world, the supply pressure of cotton market in 2015/2016 has not been reduced under the hedging of raising per mu yield and decreasing the rate of abandonment.

China's cotton producing areas are also facing these risks.

The global demand and demand forecast for July released by the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) considers that the global cotton planting area in July is expected to be 31 million 300 thousand hectares, down 6% from the same period last year. However, it is partly offset by the decrease in the rate of abandoned cultivation and the slight increase in yield per unit area.

At the same time, it is estimated that the world's cotton production is 23 million 900 thousand tons, a decrease of 9% compared with the same period last year. It is estimated that the global cotton consumption will be 24 million 900 thousand tons, an increase of 2% over the same period last year.

Although the gap between production and demand reached 1 million tons, due to the estimated global 2014/2015 year

The final inventory was 21 million 900 thousand tons, an increase of 9% over the same period, and the inventory consumption ratio of 90%. Therefore, by the year of 2015/2016, global stocks still had 20 million 900 thousand tons, down 5% from the same period last year.

USDA's forecast is even more pessimistic. In its July global cotton production and demand report, it said that China's cotton consumption was reduced, and that

Dosage and

A significant increase in the number of cotton stocks is expected to increase by 544 thousand tons in 2015/2016, thereby stimulating the end of the world stock increase by about 400000 tons.

The debt crisis and the expected increase in the US dollar interest rate rate have made the domestic cotton futures price plummeted. Although the market has digested the systemic risk, however, in the face of the domestic and foreign supply pressure of the cotton market and the downturn of the downstream consumption, the 1601 contract of the main cotton futures contract is still maintaining a weak trend, and the price is narrowed in the range of 12600 to 12800 yuan / ton.